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Wednesday, August 31, 2011
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BJTOTO 成功多多 (1562)
BERJAYA SPORTS TOTO BERHAD
Berjaya Times Square, Level 13-01,
NO. 1, Jalan Imbi,
55100 Kuala Lumpur
Tel: 03-21489888
Fax: 03-21419581
Listing Date: 04.05.1972
Par Value: 0.10
Market: MAIN
Sector: TRADING/SERVICES
Major Industry: HOTELS, RESTAURANTS & LEISURE
BERJAYA SPORTS TOTO BERHAD is principally engaged in investment holding and provision of management services to its subsidiary companies. The Company, along with its subsidiaries, is principally engaged in the operations of Toto betting; leasing of online lottery equipment; manufacture and distribution of computerized lottery and voting systems; property investment and development, and investment holding. The Company operates in two segments: toto betting and leasing of lottery equipment, and others, which includes property investment and development, investment holding, and manufacture and distribution of computerized lottery and voting systems. On September 5, 2008, the Company incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary, Berjaya-ILTS Limited.
Zhulian Volume Distribution
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ZHULIAN 速远机构 (5131)
ZHULIAN CORPORATION BERHAD
Plot 41 & 42, Bayan Lepas Industrial Estate,
Phase IV, 11900 Bayan Lepas,
Penang
Tel: 604-616 2020
Fax: 604-641 3020 / 641 4020
Email: info@zhulian.com.my
Listing Date: 27.04.2007
Par Value: 0.50
IPO Price: 1.230
Market: MAIN
Sector: CONSUMER
Major Industry: TEXTILES, APPAREL & LUXURY GOODS
ZHULIAN CORPORATION BERHAD is a Malaysia-based investment holding company. The subsidiaries of the Company are Zhulian Jewellery Manufacturing Sdn. Bhd. engaged in manufacturing of costume and fine jewelry; Zhulian Marketing (M) Sdn. Bhd. engaged in direct marketing of costume jewellery and consumer products; Zhulian Industries Sdn. Bhd. engaged in manufacturing of consumer products; Beyond Products Technology Sdn. Bhd. engaged in the manufacturing of water treatment system and its related products; Zhulian Manufacturing Sdn. Bhd. engaged in the manufacturing of bedroom apparels and therapeutic products; Master Square Sdn. Bhd. engaged in trading of consumer products; Zhulian Printing Industries Sdn. Bhd. engaged in the printing of brochures, leaflets, catalogues, name cards and other related documents; Zhulian Management Sdn. Bhd. engaged in providing management services and investment holding, and Zhulian Development Sdn. Bhd. engaged in property development.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Selamat Hari Merdeka
MERDEKA! MERDEKA! MERDEKA!
Selamat Hari Merdeka to all my friend ^^
国庆日快乐！！！
National Day, also called Merdeka Day, is celebrated in Malaysia on 31st August each year. It celebrates the granting of independence on 31st August 1957.
Malaysia is a federation of thirteen states in Southeast Asia. The country consists of two distinct geographical regions divided by the South China Sea.
Peninsular Malaysia (also Mainland or West Malaysia) lies on the Malay Peninsula, South of the border with Thailand and is connected by the Johor-Singapore Causeway and the Malaysia-Singapore Second Link (or Tuas Second Link) to the South with the island state of Singapore. The island of Penang (also connected by a bridge) is regarded as being part of mainland Malaysia.
On the mainland there are nine sultanates (Johor, Kedah, Kelantan, Negeri Sembilan, Pahang, Perak, Perlis, Selangor and Terengganu), two states headed by governors (Malacca and Penang), and two federal territories (Putrajaya and Kuala Lumpur).
Malaysian Borneo (or East Malaysia) occupies the northern part of the island of Borneo, bordering Indonesia and surrounding the Sultanate of Brunei. It consists of the states of Sabah and Sarawak and the federal territory (an island) of Labuan.
The name "Malaysia" was adopted in 1963 when the Federation of Malaya, Singapore, Sabah (formerly North Borneo) and Sarawak formed a 14-state federation. Singapore was expelled from the federation in 1965 and became an independent country.
Although politically dominated by the Malays, modern Malaysian society is heterogeneous, with substantial Chinese and Indian minorities. Malaysian politics have been noted for their allegedly communal nature – with each of the three major component parties of the Barisan Nasional restricting membership to those of one of the three ethnic groups. However, the only major intercommunal violence the country has seen since independence was the 13th May 1969 racial riots, which occurred in the wake of an election campaign that was dominated by racial issues.
Historically, modern Malaysia is actually made up of a number of states with very different backgrounds, traditions, peoples and cultures. The existence of nine Sultanates means nine separate Kingdoms, for a start.
Malacca apart (which was originally Portuguese, then Dutch) all the states in the federation are quintessentially "British" in many ways, although the traditions of India and in particular China are reflected in some of the older architecture, and the fact that Kedah, Perlis, Terengganu and Kelantan were originally part of Thailand does not escape the discerning eye.
The British established their first colony on the Malay peninsula in 1786, with the lease of the island of Penang to the British East India Company by the Sultan of Kedah. In 1824, the British took control of Malacca following the Anglo-Dutch Treaty of that year, which divided the Malaya archipelago between Britain and the Netherlands, with Malaya in the British zone.
In 1826, Britain established a Crown Colony which they called the Straits Settlements, which united its three possessions in Malaya: Penang, Malacca and Singapore. The Straits Settlements were administered by the East India Company in Calcutta until 1867, when they were transferred to the Colonial Office in London.
In the late 19th century, several Malay states decided to enlist British help in settling their internal conflicts. The commercial importance of tin mining in the Malay states to the merchants of the Straits Settlements led to British government intervention in the tin-producing states in the Malay Peninsula. British "gunboat diplomacy" was employed to bring about a peaceful resolution to civil disturbances caused by Chinese gangsters, and the Pangkor Treaty of 1874 paved the way for the expansion of British influence in Malaya.
By the turn of the 20th century the Sultanates of Pahang, Selangor, Perak, and Negeri Sembilan, known together as the Federated Malay States (not to be confused with the Federation of Malaya), were under the de facto control of the British Residents, appointed advisors to the Malay rulers. The British were "advisers" by name but in reality they were the puppetmasters, controlling the actions of the Malay rulers. The other states all accepted "advice" from the British, and eventually Residents were appointed.
On the island of Borneo, Sabah was governed as the Crown colony of British North Borneo (originally it was governed by a private company), while Sarawak was a gift from the Sultan of Brunei – given as a personal "thank you" to the Brooke family, who ruled as White Rajahs.
Following World War II when almost all of modern Malaysia was physically occupied by the Japanese, there was increasing popular support for independence. The British planned to form the Malayan Union and combine all the mainland states into a single Crown colony under one administration – a plan which faltered against strong opposition from the Malay rulers, amongst others, and because it would have given the Chinese community citizenship. The Union, created in 1946, was replaced in 1948 by the Federation of Malaya which embraced the 11 mainland states, but not Singapore.
The British also at the time had another problem on their hands, as the Communist Party of Malaya were engaging in a guerrilla war intended to eject the British and create a communist state on the peninsula. This problem started in 1948 and continued through to 1960, and meant that a significant number of British (and Commonwealth) troops were engaged on anti- and counter-insurgency measures in what was called the Malayan Emergency.
The author had the pleasure of working on one project in Malaysia on which the principal technical advisor was Major-General Sir Jeremy Moore, KCB, CB, OBE, MC, Land deputy to CINC Fleet and later Commander Land Forces Falkland Islands. During our times in Malaysia we had to travel "up country" on a number of occasions into areas in which Sir Jeremy, as a young officer, had been engaged in battles with the communist insurgents. His recollections of the time were that it was very "hair-raising" and that the locals said that the communist fighters were every bit as tenacious as the Japanese who had occupied the country only a few years earlier.
Against this backdrop, independence for the Federation (the nine mainland states) within the British Commonwealth was granted on 31st August 1957.
Anyone who has ever been in Malaysia at the time of National Day – or Merdeka Day – will know that the celebrations start weeks beforehand, as flags, banners, decorations and all manner of festival tableaux begin to be put into place.
The author has had the pleasure of spending a great deal of time in Malaysia, travelling to all parts and in his own way making a small contribution to the national good. He can vouch for the fact that the Malaysians, encouraged by the Government and state television and radio, celebrate enthusiastically.
The fact that Merdeka Day is celebrated on 31st August does cause some resentment in East Malaysia – Sabah and Sarawak – as they regard their independence as being the forming of Malaysia on 16th September 1963 and not the earlier date.
One unusual feature of Malaysia is the fact that they have a national King, selected by a quite unique method and which is determined by rota. Malaysia is a federal constitutional elective monarchy. The federal head of state of Malaysia is the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, commonly referred to as the King of Malaysia. The Yang di-Pertuan Agong is elected to a five-year term by rota from among the nine hereditary Sultans of the Malay states; the other four states, which have titular Governors, do not participate in the selection.
The 13th and current Yang di-Pertuan Agong is Sultan Mizan Zainal Abidin, the Sultan of Terengganu. His reign began on 13th December 2006.
Selamat Hari Merdeka to all my friend ^^
国庆日快乐！！！
National Day, also called Merdeka Day, is celebrated in Malaysia on 31st August each year. It celebrates the granting of independence on 31st August 1957.
Malaysia is a federation of thirteen states in Southeast Asia. The country consists of two distinct geographical regions divided by the South China Sea.
Peninsular Malaysia (also Mainland or West Malaysia) lies on the Malay Peninsula, South of the border with Thailand and is connected by the Johor-Singapore Causeway and the Malaysia-Singapore Second Link (or Tuas Second Link) to the South with the island state of Singapore. The island of Penang (also connected by a bridge) is regarded as being part of mainland Malaysia.
On the mainland there are nine sultanates (Johor, Kedah, Kelantan, Negeri Sembilan, Pahang, Perak, Perlis, Selangor and Terengganu), two states headed by governors (Malacca and Penang), and two federal territories (Putrajaya and Kuala Lumpur).
Malaysian Borneo (or East Malaysia) occupies the northern part of the island of Borneo, bordering Indonesia and surrounding the Sultanate of Brunei. It consists of the states of Sabah and Sarawak and the federal territory (an island) of Labuan.
The name "Malaysia" was adopted in 1963 when the Federation of Malaya, Singapore, Sabah (formerly North Borneo) and Sarawak formed a 14-state federation. Singapore was expelled from the federation in 1965 and became an independent country.
Although politically dominated by the Malays, modern Malaysian society is heterogeneous, with substantial Chinese and Indian minorities. Malaysian politics have been noted for their allegedly communal nature – with each of the three major component parties of the Barisan Nasional restricting membership to those of one of the three ethnic groups. However, the only major intercommunal violence the country has seen since independence was the 13th May 1969 racial riots, which occurred in the wake of an election campaign that was dominated by racial issues.
Historically, modern Malaysia is actually made up of a number of states with very different backgrounds, traditions, peoples and cultures. The existence of nine Sultanates means nine separate Kingdoms, for a start.
Malacca apart (which was originally Portuguese, then Dutch) all the states in the federation are quintessentially "British" in many ways, although the traditions of India and in particular China are reflected in some of the older architecture, and the fact that Kedah, Perlis, Terengganu and Kelantan were originally part of Thailand does not escape the discerning eye.
The British established their first colony on the Malay peninsula in 1786, with the lease of the island of Penang to the British East India Company by the Sultan of Kedah. In 1824, the British took control of Malacca following the Anglo-Dutch Treaty of that year, which divided the Malaya archipelago between Britain and the Netherlands, with Malaya in the British zone.
In 1826, Britain established a Crown Colony which they called the Straits Settlements, which united its three possessions in Malaya: Penang, Malacca and Singapore. The Straits Settlements were administered by the East India Company in Calcutta until 1867, when they were transferred to the Colonial Office in London.
In the late 19th century, several Malay states decided to enlist British help in settling their internal conflicts. The commercial importance of tin mining in the Malay states to the merchants of the Straits Settlements led to British government intervention in the tin-producing states in the Malay Peninsula. British "gunboat diplomacy" was employed to bring about a peaceful resolution to civil disturbances caused by Chinese gangsters, and the Pangkor Treaty of 1874 paved the way for the expansion of British influence in Malaya.
By the turn of the 20th century the Sultanates of Pahang, Selangor, Perak, and Negeri Sembilan, known together as the Federated Malay States (not to be confused with the Federation of Malaya), were under the de facto control of the British Residents, appointed advisors to the Malay rulers. The British were "advisers" by name but in reality they were the puppetmasters, controlling the actions of the Malay rulers. The other states all accepted "advice" from the British, and eventually Residents were appointed.
On the island of Borneo, Sabah was governed as the Crown colony of British North Borneo (originally it was governed by a private company), while Sarawak was a gift from the Sultan of Brunei – given as a personal "thank you" to the Brooke family, who ruled as White Rajahs.
Following World War II when almost all of modern Malaysia was physically occupied by the Japanese, there was increasing popular support for independence. The British planned to form the Malayan Union and combine all the mainland states into a single Crown colony under one administration – a plan which faltered against strong opposition from the Malay rulers, amongst others, and because it would have given the Chinese community citizenship. The Union, created in 1946, was replaced in 1948 by the Federation of Malaya which embraced the 11 mainland states, but not Singapore.
The British also at the time had another problem on their hands, as the Communist Party of Malaya were engaging in a guerrilla war intended to eject the British and create a communist state on the peninsula. This problem started in 1948 and continued through to 1960, and meant that a significant number of British (and Commonwealth) troops were engaged on anti- and counter-insurgency measures in what was called the Malayan Emergency.
The author had the pleasure of working on one project in Malaysia on which the principal technical advisor was Major-General Sir Jeremy Moore, KCB, CB, OBE, MC, Land deputy to CINC Fleet and later Commander Land Forces Falkland Islands. During our times in Malaysia we had to travel "up country" on a number of occasions into areas in which Sir Jeremy, as a young officer, had been engaged in battles with the communist insurgents. His recollections of the time were that it was very "hair-raising" and that the locals said that the communist fighters were every bit as tenacious as the Japanese who had occupied the country only a few years earlier.
Against this backdrop, independence for the Federation (the nine mainland states) within the British Commonwealth was granted on 31st August 1957.
Anyone who has ever been in Malaysia at the time of National Day – or Merdeka Day – will know that the celebrations start weeks beforehand, as flags, banners, decorations and all manner of festival tableaux begin to be put into place.
The author has had the pleasure of spending a great deal of time in Malaysia, travelling to all parts and in his own way making a small contribution to the national good. He can vouch for the fact that the Malaysians, encouraged by the Government and state television and radio, celebrate enthusiastically.
The fact that Merdeka Day is celebrated on 31st August does cause some resentment in East Malaysia – Sabah and Sarawak – as they regard their independence as being the forming of Malaysia on 16th September 1963 and not the earlier date.
One unusual feature of Malaysia is the fact that they have a national King, selected by a quite unique method and which is determined by rota. Malaysia is a federal constitutional elective monarchy. The federal head of state of Malaysia is the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, commonly referred to as the King of Malaysia. The Yang di-Pertuan Agong is elected to a five-year term by rota from among the nine hereditary Sultans of the Malay states; the other four states, which have titular Governors, do not participate in the selection.
The 13th and current Yang di-Pertuan Agong is Sultan Mizan Zainal Abidin, the Sultan of Terengganu. His reign began on 13th December 2006.
Stocks in U.S. Drop as Confidence Data Drags S&P 500 Down From Month High
U.S. stocks fell, dragging the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down from a four-week high, after consumer confidence sank to the lowest level since April 2009.
The S&P 500 decreased 0.8 percent to 1,200.44 at 10 a.m. in New York. The benchmark gauge for American equities rose to the highest level since Aug. 3 yesterday after surging 7.7 percent in six days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 74.89 points, or 0.7 percent, to 11,464.36 today.
The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence slumped to 44.5, the weakest since April 2009, from a revised 59.2 reading in July, figures from the research group showed today. It was the biggest point drop since October 2008. Economists predicted the August gauge would fall to 52, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.
The S&P 500 fell 10 percent through yesterday since July 22 as better-than-estimated reports last week on durable-goods orders and housing prices contrasted with data this month on jobless claims, consumer confidence and manufacturing that spurred concern the U.S. is poised for a recession. Gauges of financial, industrial and energy shares, which are most-tied to the economy, have led declines since the index peaked in 2011 on April 29, slumping at least 16 percent.
The S&P 500 decreased 0.8 percent to 1,200.44 at 10 a.m. in New York. The benchmark gauge for American equities rose to the highest level since Aug. 3 yesterday after surging 7.7 percent in six days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 74.89 points, or 0.7 percent, to 11,464.36 today.
The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence slumped to 44.5, the weakest since April 2009, from a revised 59.2 reading in July, figures from the research group showed today. It was the biggest point drop since October 2008. Economists predicted the August gauge would fall to 52, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.
The S&P 500 fell 10 percent through yesterday since July 22 as better-than-estimated reports last week on durable-goods orders and housing prices contrasted with data this month on jobless claims, consumer confidence and manufacturing that spurred concern the U.S. is poised for a recession. Gauges of financial, industrial and energy shares, which are most-tied to the economy, have led declines since the index peaked in 2011 on April 29, slumping at least 16 percent.
European Stocks Advance for Second Day Amid Speculation Growth to Continue
European stocks advanced for a second day amid speculation the outlook for the global economy is not as bad as feared. Asian shares climbed while U.S. index futures fell.
Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS) and Barclays Plc (BARC) led a rally in U.K. lenders. Ipsen SA (IPN), the French maker of a Botox rival, soared 8.6 percent after reporting increased profit. Bunzl Plc (BNZL), the world’s biggest distributor of disposable tableware and food packaging, added 4.5 percent after earnings also advanced.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.7 percent to 229.91 at 11:16 a.m. in London. The gauge has still tumbled 13 percent this month, the biggest drop since September 2002, as European and U.S. economic reports trailed forecasts, adding to concern that the economic recovery is at risk. The decline has left the measure trading at about 9.6 times estimated earnings, near the cheapest since March 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“Given the sharp drop in equities in August, I think even a moderate recession is now priced in and should not scare investors,” said Mikio Kumada, a global strategist at LGT Capital Management in Singapore. “Even very sluggish growth will now suffice for equities to find a bottom and even rally for a while, though it will take time for the markets to reclaim old highs.”
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1 percent, while Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures fell 0.6 percent.
U.K. Leads Advance
Today’s gains in the Stoxx 600 were led by U.K. equities that missed out on yesterday’s rally because of a holiday. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index of the biggest companies in the euro area, which excludes British shares, lost 0.5 percent, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rallied 2.2 percent.
The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its most recent policy meeting after European markets close today. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said on Aug. 26 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the economy isn’t deteriorating enough to warrant any immediate stimulus and the central bank still has tools to stimulate growth.
A report at 10 a.m. New York time may show a gauge of consumer confidence in the world’s largest economy weakened to 52 in August from 59.5 the previous month, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.
“In the short-term, the markets can still continue the relief rally,” said Manfred Hofer, senior investment analyst at LGT Capital Management AG in Pfaeffikon, Switzerland. “Going forward, however, old topics such as the European debt crisis or fears of recession will move into focus again.”
Greek Aid Deal
European governments will seal an agreement on collateral for Greece’s second aid package by mid-September, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said late yesterday in Brussels. Euro-area governments will need to transfer additional sovereign functions to the European Union if they want to establish an economic government, he told German state broadcaster ZDF in an interview.
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi agreed to overhaul the 45 billion-euro ($66 billion) austerity plan that persuaded the European Central Bank to support Italy’s bonds, dropping a tax on the highest earners and limiting funding cuts to regional governments. The new version of the package, which is due to be voted on by the Senate next week, drops the “solidarity tax” of an additional 5 percent on income of more than 90,000 euros a year, rising to 10 percent for income above 150,000 euros, Berlusconi’s office said.
Banks Surge
RBS, Britain’s biggest government-controlled bank, jumped 7.7 percent to 23.57 pence and Barclays surged 6.4 percent to 164.90. Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY), the nation’s largest mortgage lender, rose 5.7 percent to 31.41 pence.
Jason Napier and David Lock, analysts at Deutsche Bank AG, upgraded RBS to “buy” from “hold”, writing in a report that last month’s drop was overdone and they “expect strong management will continue to deliver value and earnings and capital formation will surprise positively.” They also named Barclays as their top pick.
Alpha Bank SA advanced 2.4 percent to 2.53 euros, extending yesterday’s rally, while EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA (EUROB) tumbled 16 percent to 1.88 euros. Both banks jumped by the allowed daily limit of 30 percent yesterday after announcing a merger.
“The merger is a sign that the Greek banking sector is alive, that it is working on its future,” said LGT’s Kumada. “It may signal the start of a wider restructuring and consolidation in one of the weakest economies in Europe. It creates hope that others will soon follow in the euro area.”
Ipsen, Bunzl Gain
Ipsen rallied 8.6 percent to 24.04 euros, the biggest gain since January, after reporting first-half net income that rose 22 percent to 91.7 million euros. The average analyst estimate was 78.8 million euros. The company also said it’s targeting recurring adjusting operating income, excluding currency movements, of between 190 million and 200 million euros in 2011.
Bunzl gained 4.5 percent to 754.50 pence after the company said first-half pretax profit increased 12 percent to 112.1 million pounds ($184 million) on higher revenue. Bunzl also said that it agreed to buy Majestic Products BV, a Netherlands-based personal-protection equipment business.
Anglo American Plc (AAL), part owner of the world’s biggest platinum and diamond producers, climbed 5.8 percent to 2,472 pence and Antofagasta Plc (ANTO), the copper producer controlled by Chile’s Luksic family, gained 5.6 percent to 1,275 pence. A gauge of European basic-resources companies was the best performer in the Stoxx 600. Xstrata Plc (XTA) added 4.4 percent to 1,023 pence, while BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s largest mining company, increased 4 percent to 2,037.50 pence.
Chemring Climbs
Chemring Group Plc (CHG) jumped 4.3 percent to 540 pence after the U.K. maker of missile-avoidance gear said it remains on course to meet its full-year outlook after revenue in the three months through July jumped 33 percent.
Public Power Corp SA (PPC), Greece’s biggest electricity producer, plunged 11 percent to 6.08 euros, its biggest drop since September 2008, after first-half profit fell to 128.8 million euros from 347.9 million euros a year ago.
Baloise Holding AG (BALN), Switzerland’s third-largest insurer, dropped 3.5 percent to 68.55 Swiss francs. Net income in the first six months of the year slipped 2.4 percent to 203.3 million francs ($249 million) as the Swiss currency strengthened against the euro.
Marine Harvest ASA (MHG), the world’s biggest salmon farmer, lost 2 percent to 3.10 kroner. Norwegian salmon exports to the U.S. declined 67 percent since the beginning of the year, Oslo-based newspaper Finansavisen reported, without saying where it got the information.
Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS) and Barclays Plc (BARC) led a rally in U.K. lenders. Ipsen SA (IPN), the French maker of a Botox rival, soared 8.6 percent after reporting increased profit. Bunzl Plc (BNZL), the world’s biggest distributor of disposable tableware and food packaging, added 4.5 percent after earnings also advanced.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.7 percent to 229.91 at 11:16 a.m. in London. The gauge has still tumbled 13 percent this month, the biggest drop since September 2002, as European and U.S. economic reports trailed forecasts, adding to concern that the economic recovery is at risk. The decline has left the measure trading at about 9.6 times estimated earnings, near the cheapest since March 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“Given the sharp drop in equities in August, I think even a moderate recession is now priced in and should not scare investors,” said Mikio Kumada, a global strategist at LGT Capital Management in Singapore. “Even very sluggish growth will now suffice for equities to find a bottom and even rally for a while, though it will take time for the markets to reclaim old highs.”
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1 percent, while Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures fell 0.6 percent.
U.K. Leads Advance
Today’s gains in the Stoxx 600 were led by U.K. equities that missed out on yesterday’s rally because of a holiday. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index of the biggest companies in the euro area, which excludes British shares, lost 0.5 percent, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rallied 2.2 percent.
The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its most recent policy meeting after European markets close today. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said on Aug. 26 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the economy isn’t deteriorating enough to warrant any immediate stimulus and the central bank still has tools to stimulate growth.
A report at 10 a.m. New York time may show a gauge of consumer confidence in the world’s largest economy weakened to 52 in August from 59.5 the previous month, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.
“In the short-term, the markets can still continue the relief rally,” said Manfred Hofer, senior investment analyst at LGT Capital Management AG in Pfaeffikon, Switzerland. “Going forward, however, old topics such as the European debt crisis or fears of recession will move into focus again.”
Greek Aid Deal
European governments will seal an agreement on collateral for Greece’s second aid package by mid-September, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said late yesterday in Brussels. Euro-area governments will need to transfer additional sovereign functions to the European Union if they want to establish an economic government, he told German state broadcaster ZDF in an interview.
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi agreed to overhaul the 45 billion-euro ($66 billion) austerity plan that persuaded the European Central Bank to support Italy’s bonds, dropping a tax on the highest earners and limiting funding cuts to regional governments. The new version of the package, which is due to be voted on by the Senate next week, drops the “solidarity tax” of an additional 5 percent on income of more than 90,000 euros a year, rising to 10 percent for income above 150,000 euros, Berlusconi’s office said.
Banks Surge
RBS, Britain’s biggest government-controlled bank, jumped 7.7 percent to 23.57 pence and Barclays surged 6.4 percent to 164.90. Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY), the nation’s largest mortgage lender, rose 5.7 percent to 31.41 pence.
Jason Napier and David Lock, analysts at Deutsche Bank AG, upgraded RBS to “buy” from “hold”, writing in a report that last month’s drop was overdone and they “expect strong management will continue to deliver value and earnings and capital formation will surprise positively.” They also named Barclays as their top pick.
Alpha Bank SA advanced 2.4 percent to 2.53 euros, extending yesterday’s rally, while EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA (EUROB) tumbled 16 percent to 1.88 euros. Both banks jumped by the allowed daily limit of 30 percent yesterday after announcing a merger.
“The merger is a sign that the Greek banking sector is alive, that it is working on its future,” said LGT’s Kumada. “It may signal the start of a wider restructuring and consolidation in one of the weakest economies in Europe. It creates hope that others will soon follow in the euro area.”
Ipsen, Bunzl Gain
Ipsen rallied 8.6 percent to 24.04 euros, the biggest gain since January, after reporting first-half net income that rose 22 percent to 91.7 million euros. The average analyst estimate was 78.8 million euros. The company also said it’s targeting recurring adjusting operating income, excluding currency movements, of between 190 million and 200 million euros in 2011.
Bunzl gained 4.5 percent to 754.50 pence after the company said first-half pretax profit increased 12 percent to 112.1 million pounds ($184 million) on higher revenue. Bunzl also said that it agreed to buy Majestic Products BV, a Netherlands-based personal-protection equipment business.
Anglo American Plc (AAL), part owner of the world’s biggest platinum and diamond producers, climbed 5.8 percent to 2,472 pence and Antofagasta Plc (ANTO), the copper producer controlled by Chile’s Luksic family, gained 5.6 percent to 1,275 pence. A gauge of European basic-resources companies was the best performer in the Stoxx 600. Xstrata Plc (XTA) added 4.4 percent to 1,023 pence, while BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s largest mining company, increased 4 percent to 2,037.50 pence.
Chemring Climbs
Chemring Group Plc (CHG) jumped 4.3 percent to 540 pence after the U.K. maker of missile-avoidance gear said it remains on course to meet its full-year outlook after revenue in the three months through July jumped 33 percent.
Public Power Corp SA (PPC), Greece’s biggest electricity producer, plunged 11 percent to 6.08 euros, its biggest drop since September 2008, after first-half profit fell to 128.8 million euros from 347.9 million euros a year ago.
Baloise Holding AG (BALN), Switzerland’s third-largest insurer, dropped 3.5 percent to 68.55 Swiss francs. Net income in the first six months of the year slipped 2.4 percent to 203.3 million francs ($249 million) as the Swiss currency strengthened against the euro.
Marine Harvest ASA (MHG), the world’s biggest salmon farmer, lost 2 percent to 3.10 kroner. Norwegian salmon exports to the U.S. declined 67 percent since the beginning of the year, Oslo-based newspaper Finansavisen reported, without saying where it got the information.
歐盟擬激烈手段救市‧英國或被迫年底推QE
（英國‧倫敦29日訊）歐洲中行（ECB）及歐盟執委會傳出正在考慮研擬手段激烈的政策措施，以避免全歐陷入信用緊縮的窘境；英國中行則可能被迫在年底前推出新一輪量化寬鬆政策，因為歐元區債務危機和美國經濟成長放緩正重創英國脆弱的經濟。
星期日泰晤士報報導，決策官員考慮由政府提供保證，擔保銀行發行的特定債務，以平息投資者對部份歐洲銀行業者已被拒於國際貨幣市場門外的憂慮，這些憂慮使銀行間出現信用凍結現象，與2008年9月全球金融危機發生後的情況類似。
這項銀行擔保計劃將向規模達4千400億歐元的歐洲金融穩定機制（EFSF）尋求現金援助，以便暫時擔保銀行出售的債券。這和美國財政部以及英國中行在金融危機巔峰期所採取的因應措施雷同。
歐中行悄悄購意大利和西班牙公債
歐中行和歐盟執委會代表均未就此發表評論。但最新一期巴隆週刊稍早報導，歐中行已悄悄展開量化寬鬆措施（QE），悄悄收購銀行和民間投資者不想要的意大利與西班牙公債。
衛報同日報導，由於英國財長歐斯本決心堅守財政緊縮方案，英中行總裁金恩及其他理事將肩負起提振英國經濟成長的重任，以免其陷入二度衰退。這與美國的情況迥異，聯儲局（Fed）主席伯南克上週五未如市場預期的提及新一輪QE，反而敦促總統奧巴馬將聯邦資金投注在創造就業方案。
英中行將密切關注本周公佈的製造業採購經理人指數及就業資料，以協助判斷復甦是否已經停滯。花旗集團經濟學家桑德斯說，視情況發展，中行可能最快在9月召開的利率會議上重啟QE。
摩根集團（JP Morgan）分析師則預估，英中行將在明年春天推出第二輪QE，但警告全球經濟前景快速惡化恐迫使中行提前作成決定。
英中行貨幣政策委員會成員之一的美籍經濟學家波森（Adam Posen），自去年10月以來均投票支持將中行的QE規模擴大500億英鎊（約2440億令吉）；理事費雪（Paul Fisher）近來發表的言論已開始暗示QE有擴大的必要；另一位理事威爾（Martin Weale）似乎也改變先前一貫認定通膨比衰退更令人憂心的立場。
英中行在2009年春推出首輪QE，總值計達2千億英鎊（約9756億令吉），內容包括買進主要是政府公債在內的金融資產，以增加貨幣供應。（星洲日報／財經）
[星洲日報／財經]
外圍拉警報‧投資者竄逃‧馬股8月猛挫6.56%
（吉隆坡29日訊）外圍高掛強勁逆風警報，投資者賣壓傾巢而出，促使8月全球股災災情頻傳，大馬股市也隨全球股市“大失血”，單月猛挫101.54點或6.56%。
外圍風暴連環襲擊，先有美國舉債矛盾、美國經濟衰退疑慮，後有美國信貸評級遭降，以及法國信貸評級降級危機，全球股市接連遭賣壓淩虐，令8月馬股猶如坐上滑梯般，接連跌至一個又一個低點。
馬股月初在美國舉債矛盾解決支撐下，一度重返1550點重要關口，但隨後市場對美國經濟前景暗淡，歐債險象環生等問題隱憂加深，誘發全球一波又一波股災災情，加上企業業績表現不甚理想，令馬股跌勢一發不可收拾，接連失守1500和1450點重要關口。
馬股週一僅有半日交易，富時綜指在淡靜交投下走高，全日上漲2.46點至1447.27點，但仍無力扭轉指數全月下跌101.54點或6.56%窘境。
總結全月，馬股12項主要指數全盤皆墨，更有4項指數錄得雙位數跌幅，其中以建築指數跌幅最為慘重，單月下跌13.87%，礦物指數和產業指數則以11.32%和10.25%跌幅緊追在後。
創業板指數深跌
小資本股代表－－創業板指數同樣深跌，全月下挫9.21%，而反映大盤走勢的富時全股項指數則跌7.25%。
受經濟成長放緩衝擊，工業產品指數暴跌8.65%至108.30點，金融類股也在聯昌集團（CIMB, 1023, 主板金融組）引領銀行股走跌下，單月丟失958.02點至13669.59點。
綜觀全場，僅有3項指數跌幅少於富時綜指，當中消費類股再度發揮其“防禦”特性，單月跌幅為4.81%，工商指數則走跌4.81%。
市場人士認為，馬股漲勢在7月開始受抑制，但隨著歐美債務危機烏雲籠罩，觸動全球經濟“雙底衰退”恐慌，最終上演了一幕幕全球股災戲碼，促使指數全數回吐今年漲幅，回退至2010年9月以來低位。
“但是，儘管馬股全月跌勢慘重，但整體表現僅遜於澳洲、上海和菲律賓，更遠較韓國、台灣、新加坡、印度、香港等雙位數跌幅為輕。”
9月脆弱
宜採防守策略
分析員表示，9月歷來是股市“脆弱”的月份之一，加上死亡交叉口（Death Cross）逐漸成形，未來股市走勢仍胥視外圍臉色，儘管股市可能出現深跌反彈跡象，但技術面持續偏弱，反彈空間恐怕受限。
僑豐研究指出，市場焦點轉向全球股市起伏不定，而大資本企業相繼交出令人失望財報，因此藉財報季節幾近尾聲之便，從盈利基礎中找尋未來市場走勢線索。
企業財報遜預期
“我們早前希望馬股盈利經過連續4個季度走跌，以及上調與下調比率跌破1倍水平後，馬股仍能維持上漲趨勢，但迄今公佈的100份財報中，高達33%表現較預期遜色，遠比勝預期的13%為多，進一步強化馬股評級下調至‘中和’觀點的正當性。”
僑豐表示，小資本企業從去年第二季開始交出37%失望財報，但大資本企業卻從去年第四季才開始錄得24%失望財報，而兩者的上調與下調比例失衡問題更是明顯，其中大資本企業在今年首季的上調比例還高於下調。
“我們現發現不僅盈利呈跌勢發展，大資本企業開始加入小資本令人失望財報和下調行列，促使上調與下調比率下跌至0.45倍，而健壯銀行業也開始面對盈利下調壓力，因此馬股早前跌勢可能從情緒面轉向基礎層面靠攏。”
僑豐認為，基於全球乃至大馬基本面趨向不明朗，市場可能早透過本月強大賣壓有效進行預測，因此維持馬股“中和”評級，和2012年富時綜指1466點目標不變，但明年盈利成長12.8%預測可能面對下調壓力。
潛存跌至1378點風險
“馬股潛存下跌至1378點低位風險，我們仍相信現不是積極撈底（Bottom Fishing）時機，建議投資者轉向防禦模式。”
下調企業盈利預測
達證券指出，富時綜指未來數月料延續動盪格局發展，主要是投資者對負面消息積極反應，因全球經濟不明朗和疲憊市場情緒，將導致投資者對風險資產的投資胃納。
“今年首半年財報季節遜於預期，下調2011和2012年淨利預測4.7%和4.5%，其中以交通、銀行、通訊、種植和電力領域影響最大，加上馬幣潛存少於4%漲勢，對吸引外資回歸魅力不大。”
因此，達證券下調富時綜指年終目標，從1730點減至1490點，評級則從加碼減至中和，但相關目標並未納入美國潛在雙底衰退，以及歐元區經濟疲弱可能。
“若相關因素成真，馬股未來1年將出現數次劇烈調整。”
加強內需舒緩外圍衝擊
達證券補充，自1977年以來，馬股共出現8次平均延續382天的重大下跌週期，平均跌幅高達51%，其中以1998年9月的79.6%跌幅最大，因此若相關趨勢重現，馬股可能從7月高位的1597點回退至1000點以下。
“不過，大馬已加快落實國內經濟擴張策略，來減輕外圍因素對經濟和股市衝擊，而外資持股從2007年的27%高位下跌至現有19%，也將是抗衡因素之一。”
[財經]
面對嚴重疾病‧公積金可自救
沒有人能夠充份準備跟預想不到的健康問題而戰鬥。疾病通常來得很突然，我們常被實際的財務問題困擾。嚴重疾病都圍繞著每一個角落，儘管我們認為不會發生在我們身上，然而我們應該預防它們侵襲的一天。事實上，它總是讓人措手不及，並且迅速耗盡受害者的畢生儲蓄。
以中風為例，它居於癌症及心臟疾病之後，成為馬來西亞第三大殺手。每年估計4萬人患上中風，因此它也被視為嚴重殘疾的首要原因。
治療費用往往超出預算
讓家人無法想像的是當家裡唯一的經濟支柱至親變成殘疾。在理想的情況下，擁有足夠的金錢將協助受害人朝向康復之路，但情況不一定樂觀。
病患者的每位親人面對這種情況都付出了代價。讓人最無奈的是治療及藥物所構成的巨大費用，往往都超出預算。
事實上，在緊急情況下，除了通過信用卡或簽賬卡提出款額，個人儲蓄、個人保險及其他資產都可應付（產業及車輛都可以被估售但需要時間），大部份的大馬公民都必須依靠他們的公積金儲蓄。
公積金儲蓄主要宗旨是為個人退休作準備，而且還可以利用公積金儲蓄來購置房屋、資助孩子的教育費、投資信託基金及應對緊急醫療。
允“醫療提款”動用存款
在這所有的情況，公積金局最近增加嚴重疾病的類別，允許會員依據“醫療提款”動用存款。今天會員可以利用公積金第二戶頭存款尋求治療。
原有的13種疾病已增加至36種，其中包括主要器官移植、多發性硬化症、中風、癌症、阿爾茨海默氏症、帕金森氏病、慢性肝病、慢性肺疾病、紅斑性狼瘡、狼瘡性腎炎和麻痺症。
不影響退休存款
為醫療而提取公積金，不會影響會員為舒適退休生活而存款的原意，因為當局已考慮了兩個因素即：首先，確保會員在退休時有足夠的儲蓄或資金，其次，保障會員的健康。
如果會員在未到退休年齡就染患殘疾，龐大的儲蓄對他而言將是毫無意義，尤其是當儲蓄的一部份已經被用於治療。在特殊情況下，患者還須多次療程。此外，任何一個未退休人士僅限於提取第二戶頭儲蓄，而第一戶頭儲蓄佔公積金的70%則未能提款直到55歲。
目前，大部份會員提取公積金部份儲蓄，目的是購買房子、教育及投資。以事情的輕重來論，會員的健康及家人的福祉該列為優先的考量。
以此論證來支撐公積金局所提出的增加嚴重疾病的類別及為會員準備提款。進一步的讓人瞭解公積金另一項策略是，允許會員為未滿十六歲的家庭成員提款，以治療因意外及生病所造成的3種常見的嚴重疾病如哮喘、白血病及智力障礙。
在這方面，家庭成員不僅是配偶、子女、繼子女及合法收養子女，而且還包括會員的父母、岳父岳母、養父母或合法監護人及兄弟姐妹。換句話說，擴展到整個家庭都在此行列。
醫藥治療成本不斷高漲，加上中風、癌症及潛在疾病的患者逐年增加，情況令人震驚，作為一個負責任機構的公積金局，絕對不能忽視會員的生命及社會義務。
若欲索取已核准嚴重疾病的完整列表及瞭解如何在醫療提款的資訊，請瀏覽MyEPF網站http://www.kwsp.gov.my，聯絡我們的服務專線03-89226000，或鄰近的公積金分行咨詢。
註：此稿由公積金局公關部門提供（星洲日報／投資致富‧財富看盤）
[星洲日報／投資致富]
握10年白米進口權 國家稻米4賣點穩江山
基于國家稻米（BERNAS，6866，主要板貿易）簡單且低風險的生意模式、國人對白米需求穩定，且加工廠先進化后降低成本，我們初次檢視該股，給予“買入”評級。
該公司佔大馬白米市場50%市佔率，且擁有足以提升價值的4大特點，這包括（一）國內唯一白米進口商，擁有白米進口權至2021年，讓該公司非常有利可圖、（二）擁有完善的基本設施，可進行白米加工、儲存及批發、（三）品牌知名度高，因此在零售市場內享有較高溢價，和（四）擁有大量流動現金但資本開銷（capex）少，因此能夠持續派發較高股息。
國家稻米今年內已鎖定所需白米的進口價格，表現料更強勁。
另一方面，白米走私活動長期困擾國家稻米，每年損失3億至5億的收入。隨著泰國新政府擔保將以更高價格向該國農民收購白米后，泰國走私到大馬的白米料減少。
我們也認為，國家稻米是理想的私有化對象。貿易風（TWS，4421，主要板消費）已是國家稻米主要股東，若要收購其他未持有股權並不稀奇，尤其國家稻米股價進一步大幅下滑時。
我們相信，此股適合追求股息的投資者；而且貿易風需要大量資金償還貸款，料國家稻米將派發高股息。
閉市時，國家稻米報2.91令吉，起11仙，成交量達41萬8100股。
[財經]
該公司佔大馬白米市場50%市佔率，且擁有足以提升價值的4大特點，這包括（一）國內唯一白米進口商，擁有白米進口權至2021年，讓該公司非常有利可圖、（二）擁有完善的基本設施，可進行白米加工、儲存及批發、（三）品牌知名度高，因此在零售市場內享有較高溢價，和（四）擁有大量流動現金但資本開銷（capex）少，因此能夠持續派發較高股息。
國家稻米今年內已鎖定所需白米的進口價格，表現料更強勁。
另一方面，白米走私活動長期困擾國家稻米，每年損失3億至5億的收入。隨著泰國新政府擔保將以更高價格向該國農民收購白米后，泰國走私到大馬的白米料減少。
我們也認為，國家稻米是理想的私有化對象。貿易風（TWS，4421，主要板消費）已是國家稻米主要股東，若要收購其他未持有股權並不稀奇，尤其國家稻米股價進一步大幅下滑時。
我們相信，此股適合追求股息的投資者；而且貿易風需要大量資金償還貸款，料國家稻米將派發高股息。
閉市時，國家稻米報2.91令吉，起11仙，成交量達41萬8100股。
[財經]
航空业 飞向高油价
油价近期回落，但飞机燃油却居高不下，航空公司再度面对窘境，在上半年狼狈地交出欠佳的业绩。
马航，更写下逾7亿令吉的高亏损，未来前景一片黯淡。
航空公司正飞向高油价时代，前路颠簸、浓雾层层，航空公司该怎么办？
航空公司 翻身大作战
国际油价大涨，全球航空公司也如临大敌，区域航空公司新公布的业绩，都因为敌不过高油价的冲击，而写下跌幅。
马航（MAS，3786，主板贸服股）更在首半年，就写下7亿6901万9000令吉的庞大亏损，疲弱不堪的表现，令人咋舌！
亚洲航空（AirAsia，5099，主板贸服股），尽管能继续获利，但在高油价时代，仍然难逃命运纠葛，向来稳健上涨的步伐，也开始放缓。
高油价时代如何影响航空公司命运？本地航空业者要如何应对？
全球航空业在2008年及2009年深陷低迷，2010年拨开云雾，成功转亏为盈，录得160亿美元的净利。
总净利大砍54%
但好景不长，今年的高油价在此打击航空领域，国际航空运输协会（IATA）将航空业2011年的总净利预测，大幅削减54%至40亿美元。
这已是过去半年内，国际航空运输协会第二次下修预测，而且比2010年的净利，减少75%。
之前的降幅是从91亿美元，下调至86亿美元。
IATA 8月4日公布的7月份季度调查报告显示，2011年第二季度全球航空公司盈利为10.4亿美元，低于去年同期的28.8亿美元。
除了日本、美国及中东问题未除，高油价问题更让航空公司“如临大敌”，航空公司再陷入困境。
燃油价涨隐忧大 航空主管锁眉头
油价目前占了航空公司总成本的30%，可是10年前只有13%。
航空商务杂志引援Vueling航空总执行长亚力斯克鲁斯说：“没有人能够不担心油价，现在只有石油公司，才是个好年。”
Ryanair副总裁麦克欧雷也说，高油价时代降临，伴随而来的是业内更多的并购或倒闭情况。因为对于那些资产负债表疲弱的公司而言，要应付不断高涨的油价并不容易。
航空公司掌舵人个个眉头深锁，显示油价成本对航空公司来说，有多沉重。
自去年12月开始，油价因为中东战火而走高，更成为航空业者心中一根难除的刺。
由于燃油成本的增幅超过了收入的增长，新航第一季净利为4500万新元（约1.12亿令吉），相较去年同期的2.53亿新元（约6.23亿令吉）下滑82%。
亚航稳住盈利
国泰航空上半年也因燃油成本上升，上半年净利为28.1亿港元（约10.8亿令吉），比去年同期的68.4亿港元（约26.3亿令吉）减少59%。
把视角转回大马。马航表现也狼狈不堪，半年大亏逾7亿，与同业在低迷声中仍可赚钱的情况相比，优劣明显。
亚航至少还能稳住盈利，而且有抗低迷能力，甚称区域业者中最佳。
8月中，飞机燃油价格达到每加仑为3.08美元，比一年前高出45%，虽然航空公司已为50%的燃油进行护盘，但IATA仍预测，今年的燃油成本，将大增100亿至1760亿美元。
尽管最近的燃油价格虽然回软，但IATA强调，大部分炼制产品的价格仍未走低，飞机燃油价格也不例外，显示航空公司并未因此而松一口气。
转嫁能力跌
“燃油价格是航空公司今年最大的隐忧，由于目前经济仍然未明朗化，因此，航空公司把高油价转嫁给消费者的能力降低，所以最好靠本身的能力，加强盈利基础，对抗高油价时代。”IATA 如此预测。
高油价时代降临，航空公司也非手无缚鸡之力，一般上业者都会透过提高回酬、为燃油护盘、控制成本、提高附加收入，甚至合并来抗衡低迷时期。
下来，我们将针对以上4点加以分析，并看看国际业者及本地航空公司，如何应用这几个方针对抗逆境。
■策略一：提高回酬
《航空领域的回酬管理》作者费德勒华纳泽，就在序文中指出，所谓的回酬管理就包括：控制载客量、承载量、机票价格等。
“简单来说，航空公司必须想出策略，充分扩大本身的营收，包括找到对的定位及客户群，给机票定价，预想要载多少人，然后想办法把机位填满。”
华纳泽也比喻说，航空公司的机位管理，就好比工厂的库存管理，或酒店的客房管理，航空公司决定要飞几个航线，多少航班、用多大的飞机，这些都会影响机位数量。
调高票价最直接
在决定之后，就要管理乘客人数，最理想的情况，当然是把每个机位都填满，但后者又取决于公司的机票价格。
再来，最直接的方法就是调高机票价格，根据IATA的统计，今年内业者已至少调高8次燃油附加费，消费者目前都能接受较高的机票价格。
不过，随着经济越来越低迷，业者转嫁成本的能力也会降低，若价格调涨太高，或影响需求。
另外，全球航空公司为了抗油价，也减少航班或航线，IATA因此预料，总载客量仅以5.8%增长。
执行知易行难
上述几个方法，可协助航空公司提高回酬，但要如何执行，并从中扩大收入，却并非简单的方法。
华纳泽就说：“理论看来虽然简单，但整个执行过程却牵扯到成本控制、消费行为，及外围的一切动荡，因此挑战重重。”
回酬低 马航亏损
高油价降临，航空公司欲招架并不容易，马航就是一直无法摆脱回酬率较低的问题，而面对接二连三的亏损。
马航前任总执行长拿督东姑阿兹米，就曾坦承：“回酬率是马航需要加强的环节，油价问题并不在掌控之中，要舒缓油价带来的影响，唯有透过回酬率加以应对。”
丰隆投资研究也指出，马航在截至2011年6月30日第二季，净亏高达5亿2668万令吉，首半年共面对7亿6901万9000令吉的庞大亏损，这些主要归咎于低于预期的回酬，及过高的油价。
马银行投资银行也透露：“马航的回酬率增长幅度，只有1.3%，虽然比新加坡航空好，还是低于泰国航空及印尼Garuda航空，回酬率表现令人失望。”
回酬无法显著提升，再加上控制油价高涨导致的成本问题，马航在上半年净亏7亿6901万9000令吉。
机票定价对症下药
同时，券商指出，马航要加强回酬，必须从新检讨本身的机票定价能力，并朝航班、航线与机位等着手，找出回酬不佳的核心问题，以对症下药。
联昌国际研究分析员叶国豪说，马航主要的亏损，在于中及长途航班，尤其是欧洲的班次。
虽然这次面对油价冲击的马航，矢志再减航班，但是马航自拿督斯里依德利斯年代，就为了止亏而大减成本及大砍航线，因此，已经没有太多长途航线可以再减。
“马航主要亏损的，在于欧洲航线，但是，他却不愿意将登陆权出让给其他公司，所以不妨在与亚航结为一家后，把权力转给亚航X，这样就能保住欧洲与大马之间的联系，同时降低亏损。”
此外，马航加入‘寰宇一家’航空公司联盟（Oneworld Alliance），也有助改善欧洲航线的窘境。
叶国豪指出，昆达士航空正在探索，使用吉隆坡国际机场，或利用马航的飞机直接从澳洲飞往欧洲大陆，这有助于马航减少在当地的亏损。
虽然如此，加盟活动需要18个月才能完成。因此，马航预料还会继续在欧洲航线面对亏损问题。
在机票价格方面，依德利斯时代，已将马航定位为休闲为主（Leisure-based)的方向，摒弃和新航及国泰航空等优质（Premium）航空直接竞争，从中制定符合市场定位的机票价格。
不过，马航新的管理层最近却考虑将马航重新定位，决定重拾优质航空地位，并决定直接和新航及国泰航空等公司竞争，因此定价政策或许有变。
■策略二：借由辅助收入提升获利能力
高油价时期，航空公司也能透过提高辅助收入，推高自己的盈利。
IATA就指出，许多航空公司过去两年就因为辅助收入，成功在2010年翻身，并预料2011年辅助收入，将为航空公司带来5980亿美元。
缓冲回酬下降
这些辅助收入就包括，预定机票的收费、行李收费、食品收费及宠物登机等。
亚航在2011财政年首半年，也无法幸免于高油价的冲击，但成功靠辅助收入，缓冲了回酬率涨幅稍为下降的问题，在区域航空业者中稳住脚步。
叶国豪说：“亚航在2011财政年第二季，基础回酬因为飞荧（Fire Fly）的竞争而按年下滑5.3%，但是辅助收入扬升，因此抵消了跌幅，第二季整体回酬率仅按年滑落1%。”
环境虽艰难 亚航营运胜同行
在今年上半年，亚航可用座位公里（ASK）按年增长7.9%，乘客每公里营收（RPK）也按年增长23.2%。
马银行投资银行说：“在低回酬率的营运环境中，亚航的ASK及RPK能捎来这样的表现，已经很优秀，甚至比区域业者更好。再加上亚航的舰队年龄较轻，因此效率更高。”
侨丰投资研究分析后指出，亚航乘客回酬表现健康，第二季每名乘客的辅助收入按年增加16%达49.8令吉，有望达致每名乘客60令吉目标。
“我们相信，之后会有更多提高辅助收入的政策即将公布，他们就包括了忠心顾客计划，这些都有助推高亚航的辅助收入，从中提升收益能力。”
■策略三：为飞机燃油护盘
护盘是抵抗高燃油价格的重要措施之一，但如何准确为燃油护盘，却是大学问。
美国达美航空（Delta Airlines）在第三及第四季，分别为45%及55%的燃油护盘。联合大陆航空（United Continental）在整合后，也为51%的燃油护盘。
国际能源研究中心总经济学家李奥德拉斯说：“国际航空业者中，有一些采用策略性护盘（strategic hedge)，他们包括法国航空、英国航空、德国汉莎航空。
但是，也有一些业者如瑞安航空，采纳战术护盘（tactical hedge），他们通常在担心油价大涨时，采取更进一步的市场护盘动作，但往往会因此面对亏损。”
预测油价很愚蠢
德拉斯观察后发现，一些航空公司2008年，正因为担心油价过高，而对高油价进行护盘，但是当油价回落时，却必须付出高额亏损。
李奥认为：“去预测油价走势，是一个愚蠢的游戏。”
马航就曾经几度因为护盘失利，而蒙受账面亏损，上财政年第二季，就因为护盘面对2亿1700万令吉的亏损，导致马航亏损。
一年后，马航在今年第二季的护盘亏损减少至5600万令吉，不过还是无法掌控油价成本，并因油价开销过高而蒙受净利损失。
东姑阿兹米在位时曾表示，马航采取的竞争性护盘（competitive hedging）政策，经常会重估油价，并按时间进行大修改。
至于亚航，其护盘策略伸缩性则比较高，该行总执行长丹斯里东尼费南德斯说：“我们是以‘动态’的方式护盘。”
亚航甚至大胆的在2008年高油价时代，选择以现货价格购买燃油，不为燃油进行护盘。
油价到底会多高？又要如何护盘？
空中巴士总行销长约翰雷纳预测，油价今年会突破100美元，但平均价格预料为90美元，以85至95美元的价位护盘最舒适。
亚航直至2011年第四季，为20%的燃油进行“混合”护盘，即用每桶120美元的飞机煤油，与每桶112美元的飞机燃油，进行固定交换(Fixed Swap)。
■策略四：合并
在高油价的情况下，小型航空公司会因站不住脚，而被大型公司并吞。
也有一些航空公司为了达到协同作用，和选择合作。
美国达美航空2008年就选择和西北航空（Northwest Airlines)合并，大大降低了两家公司的成本。
近期，亚航和马航也达成合作关系，正式达成全面性合作框架(CCF)，通过合作协议和换股计划，补足和加强国内两大航空公司的各别核心业务，分别专注在全方位航空服务和廉价航空服务。
虽然合作框架还未具体出炉，但是市场希望透过双方的合作提高协同作用，协助马航转亏为盈。
放弃休闲走向优质 马航转型弹多赞少
马航在今年上半年大亏逾7亿令吉，无法止血的情况让投资者担心。
但随着与亚航合为一家，管理层也出现大换血，新的管理层是否能停止马航亏损连连的惨况？
马航上周二（20日）原本预定召开记者会公布业绩，在午餐时间后却突然喊停，但与分析员的汇报会却照常进行，且初步公布了未来的方向。
这些新方向包括：
1. 摒弃过去以休闲为主（Leisure-based)的方向，转而走向优质（Premium）航空。
2. 考虑加入“寰宇一家”（Oneworld）抑或是“天合联盟”（SkyTeam）的航空结盟。
3.不排除裁员行动
4.护盘政策维持在25%
另外，消息透露，马航已敲定董事经理人选，而被相中的人选是发电公司马拉卡（Malakoff）的前总执行长阿末佐哈里耶也。
针对马航的转型计划，分析员弹多赞少，甚至有分析员放狠话说，摒弃过去以休闲为主（Leisure-based)的方向，转而走向优质（Premium）航空，是错误的决定！
联昌国际分析员叶国豪说，马航新管理层将改变航空公司的定位，简单来说，就是减少经济舱，但专注在头等舱及商务舱。
“这意味着马航将减少和廉价航空的竞争，并直接对上新航及国泰航空等强硬对手。”
然而，叶国豪并不认同新管理层的政策。他引援资料称，前掌舵人丹斯里依德利斯在2006年，分析马航架构时曾指出，该航空公司主要是“休闲型”航空，而非商务型，所以应该专注在经济机位。
“我们相信2006年及2011年之间，大马、新加坡及泰国的航空市场并未改变，在相比泰国曼谷素万那普及新加坡樟宜机场时，吉隆坡国际机场反落为次等航空中心。
有鉴于此，我们不知道马航新管理层到底是用什么标准，决定改变马航的定位！”
支持裁员减成本
另外，马航新管理层也考虑加入天合联盟联盟，并从新探讨和寰宇一家联盟的合作事项，也被券商唱淡。
马银行投资银行的分析员说：“天合联盟的成员有印尼Garuda航空、越南航空及法国航空，这些航空公司都在吉隆坡有基地；反观寰宇一家联盟，却没有飞行吉隆坡，因此马航将主要受惠。”
叶国豪同意以上说法，并强调马航现在亏损的航线以欧洲航班居多，加入寰宇一家，能在昆达士航空的合作下，减轻受损程度。
“但马航现在却大砍东协航线的载客量7%，这些航班的亏损程度不高，看来马航并没有真正找出的症结所在，只是头痛医头、脚痛医脚。”
但是，马航在周五晚上发布文告宣布，将正式加入寰宇一家。
不过，券商皆支持马航继续裁员的举动，因为马航目前冗员已过多，裁员能减少劳力成本，也是必要之举。
报道：刘慧欣
[南洋商报]
黄金十年:无心恋战
讲台上，一位分析员卖力的为大家解说：“你看，一旦指数跌破1470点，就是这条红线，意味着大马股市全面陷入熊市调整期，下一个支持点是1250点……”
台下听众全神贯注的做笔记，表情沉重。
低买弹药快耗尽
股市震荡了一个月，相信逢低买进的人已经差不多弹药耗尽，相信短期调整的人已经信心动摇；怕股市跌了100点，再跌200点的人越来越多，投资者充斥着不安的气氛。
开斋节和国庆日，加上学校长假来临，股民无心恋战，终于在上周站不稳所谓的1470点，一举滑落到1444点。除此之外，美国联储局主席柏南克在周五的谈话，也让全世界嘱目，看他能否为市场重新注入信心。
如笔者所预料，组合里的股票都带来很好的盈利，不过限于市场蹒跚，再好的业绩也只是激励股价一阵子，效果有若昙花一现，迅即又掉入跌势。
其中，沿海工程和合成统一带来令人惊喜的股息。沿海工程的4.2仙中期息已比去年的5.5仙(那时还没有3送1红股) 高，令人期待它未来是不是采取一年派两次股息的政策。
业绩好也套利
合成统一的盈利虽然和去年持平，却派出3.9仙的股息，对比去年的6仙(同样的，那时还没1送2红股及5配1附 加股) ，增加了超过一倍，希望下半年会更上层楼。
同时不得不提的是，许多人对眼前的股市失去信心，因此再好的成绩只给了他们一个趁机套利离场的借口。
如果您成功在合成统一1令吉60仙的时候卖出，因为“调整可能还没有完毕” 的原因，不代表现在1令吉30仙的价格您会买回。
那么，当合成统一“调整” 完毕，慢慢站回1令吉60仙，甚至2令吉时，您还在等待，可能就失去低价持有它的机会了。
我们不妨拿上星期选中的国家稻米做一个剖析。国家稻米在2009年10月收到贸易风(TWM) 的无条件全面收购建议，价钱是2.08令吉。
从当时回看一年前，公司股价从(08年4月)2令吉29仙掉逾50%到08年10月的只有1令吉05仙，有谁能够预测一年后它会起回100%，被TWM这个伯乐相中？
我们现在再看回当时的董事局和独立顾问的陈辞，“不约而同”呼吁小股东接受献议，可能觉得很好笑，但希望他们当时的确是出于一番好意。
献议过后，2011年的今天国家稻米已在2令吉90仙，抛离了所谓的“合理收购价”。
我们再看股息派发，从2004到2008这5年，平均股息才6.5仙，收购后的2009和2010年毛股息大幅度提高到24和30仙，令人刮目相看！截稿时欣然看到国家稻米宣布15仙中期息，为我们的新投资带来了5%的回酬率，可喜可贺！
免责声明
除了股票基本面，本文内容纯属虚构，所有提及股项纯属学术上或经验上的建议，读者若有兴趣投资，应该自行深入研究或询问股票经纪才决定，盈亏自负。我们鼓励通过正确的投资方式制造财富，文中的建议，都有一个完整的买卖纪录。
草根牛马
[南洋商报]
全球动荡 不宜趁低吸纳
基于全球经济仍持续动荡，分析员奉劝小户投资者莫贪小便宜，勿趁低吸纳。
马股本周的支撑点料在1423点，而阻力点则是1467、1487和1500点。
回顾 卖压沉重失守1450点
在上周，马股走势主要受卖压的影响，投资者趋于谨慎并导致卖压涌现，因而造成马股短期波动，失守1450点。
马股在历经全球股市崩盘后元气大伤，除了上周二（23日）扬升10.21点至一周最高的1482.37点外，基本来说，上周马股仍呈下跌走势，富时隆综指周五以1444.81点挂收，较前周的1483.98点，下跌2.64%或39.17点。
继标准普尔调降美国主权债券评级后，欧元区的债务危机以及市场对欧洲银行业的担忧情绪，引致全球经济前景恶化，本地数家证券行更纷纷发出全球经济放缓的警告。
大马抽佣经纪协会主席黄峋理表示，在欧美经济危机的负面影响下，我国基金经理纷纷抛售手中股票，大部分指数股更因此走下坡。
马股走势反复
“上周的卖压现象打击马股走势，大部分指数股因抛售现象而下跌，反而一些二三线股却不受上述现象的影响。”
侨丰投资银行抽佣经纪洪正聪透露，除了外围负面因素的影响，我国的政治局势也是促使投资者不敢放手一搏的主要因素。
他指出，大马的政治局势因传闻中即将来临的大选，以及上个月的709大集会而备受冲击，导致投资者纷纷将资金撤离马股。外加上周本地基金经理恐慌而纷纷抛售股票，马股走势亦非常反复。
“全球经济走势不稳定，更有专家认为有些国家已进入经济衰退的阶段，而主导全球经济的美国也处于经济衰退的边缘。”
一向来为马股贡献良多的银行股，季度业绩表现也不符早前的预测，譬如联昌国际（CIMB，1023，主板金融股）上周二公布业绩后，股价在周三、周四两天内就滑落了8%。
展望 佳节长假本周交投淡
黄峋理披露，由于本周是我国开斋节和国庆日的长假，大马交易所只营运一天半，所以本周交易预计将不太活络。
洪正聪表示，来周的马股走势仍强烈依赖外围因素，一旦美国联储局主席伯南克在世界央行年会上宣布推出第三轮量化宽松政策（QE3），该项消息料将提振市场的信心，可能会激励市场出现回弹。
“第一轮量化宽松政策（QE1）和第二轮量化宽松政策（QE2）的推出，并未对美国和全球经济走势构成实质的正面影响。若伯南克在此时宣布推出QE3，我认为，这项消息可为全球经济捎来喜讯，继而带动马股走势。反之，股市仍处于低迷状态。”
然而，在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开的世界央行年会上，伯南克并没有详细说明美联储会否推出QE3，仅表示美联储将把9月中旬的会议延长到两天，以便让美联储可就采取何种政策选项进行讨论。
1423点支撑
此外，基于全球经济仍持续动荡，洪正聪也奉劝小户投资者莫贪小便宜，勿趁低吸纳。
他预计，马股本周的支撑点是1423点，而阻力点则是1467、1487和1500点。
业绩表现逊预期 银行 种植股看跌
志必得研究主管冯廷秀表示，希腊能否顺利取得二次纾困专款面临变数，加上美国唯恐面临经济衰退的可能性增高，继而打击全球经济走势，马股本周走势也因而受到影响。
他说，希腊同意芬兰要求，签署释出抵押品的双边协议，换取芬兰同意支持高达1090亿欧元（4665亿令吉）的二轮纾困方案，但此举却引来奥地利等其他欧元区国家也纷纷效法。
“若欧盟无法达成共识，希腊债务违约的风险料将升高。假设伯南克这时宣布推出QE3，预计这将大大推动马股来周的走势。”
鉴于季度业绩表现不如预期，冯廷秀披露，银行领域料将继续受到冲击，而种植领域可能因棕油库存走高而受到影响。
“随着下个月棕油库存料将持续走高，原棕油价格可能因而走低，种植领域将不受看好。”
来周利好
●第三轮量化宽松政策（QE3）可能推行的激励
来周利淡
●开斋节和国庆日长假
●美国恐面临经济衰退的可能性增高
●希腊取得二次纾困专款面临变数
注意事项
●小户须谨慎，趁低吸纳时机未到
● 银行领域和种植领域料持续走低
■报道：倪嫣鴽
[南洋商报]
發展商須獲准證促銷產業
發展商在刊登廣告促銷產業、或向購屋者收取屋款之前，需獲得房屋部發出的廣告與銷售准證，產業的正式銷售與訂購，是在發展商取得房屋部發給的准證之後，這也表示在取得准證後才簽署訂購表格及徵收訂金。
一般的情況是，購屋者在支付訂金的14天內，將與發展商簽署買賣合約，假如購屋者無法在這14天內簽署合約，發展商可依據訂金文件所列明的條件，沒收購屋者支付的訂金。
不過，假如訂金文件的簽署是在發展商取得廣告與銷售准證之前，則可視為不合法文件，當訂購表格為不合法文件時，情況就不一樣。
舉個例子，假如購屋者是在正式訂購前，支付訂金給發展商辦公室的書記，就是還未取得廣告與銷售准證，可是正式推售時，該產業的售價可能比書記之前給的價格高，他們之間的安排另當別論。
那麼，購屋者是否能在發展商取得廣告與銷售准證前訂購房屋？市場一般是採用“獻購表格”來交易。
獻購表格與預訂表格的條文類似，需填寫的資料包括名字、身份證號碼、或公司號碼與地址、產業的資料、購買價、訂金、在取得准證後需在期限內簽署合約，以及可能被沒收訂金的附帶條件。
與訂購表格一樣，獻購表格讓購屋者以原有價格購買產業，在簽署獻購表格時，購屋者將支付訂金，他可以在發展商取得廣告與銷售准證後，向發展商購買產業。
獻購文件如何發揮作用？
發展商的律師將負責獻購文件的準備，在購屋者簽署有關表格後，購屋者支付的訂金將交給發展商律師保管，直到發展商取得廣告與銷售准證。
在取得准證後，律師將把訂金交給發展商，購屋者將在獻購文件誌明的日期內簽署合約，在簽署合約時，他將支付的屋款相等於10%屋價、再扣掉之前已討的訂金，假設訂金是2%，那麼，他需要支付的是8%的屋價。
買賣合約簽署後，接下來就是等待按正規的房屋分階段完工程序。
假如獻購文件是合法的，購屋者可以擁有本身的代表律師，在需要與必要的情況下，對獻購文件的一些條件做出修訂。
其他一些附加條文包括：假如發展商沒有在預定的期限內取得廣告與銷售准證，購屋者可以提出終止交易、取回訂金的要求。
此外，購屋者可以提出由購屋者代表律師握該筆訂金的要求，在發展商取得廣告與銷售准證後，需按表格指定的期限內發放給發展商。
註：摘譯自陳清雄律師（Robert Tan）著書：“向發展商購屋，你需要掌握的常識”（Buying Property From Developers、What you need to know and do）（星洲日報／投資致富‧一手產業）
[星洲日報／投資致富]
一般的情況是，購屋者在支付訂金的14天內，將與發展商簽署買賣合約，假如購屋者無法在這14天內簽署合約，發展商可依據訂金文件所列明的條件，沒收購屋者支付的訂金。
不過，假如訂金文件的簽署是在發展商取得廣告與銷售准證之前，則可視為不合法文件，當訂購表格為不合法文件時，情況就不一樣。
舉個例子，假如購屋者是在正式訂購前，支付訂金給發展商辦公室的書記，就是還未取得廣告與銷售准證，可是正式推售時，該產業的售價可能比書記之前給的價格高，他們之間的安排另當別論。
那麼，購屋者是否能在發展商取得廣告與銷售准證前訂購房屋？市場一般是採用“獻購表格”來交易。
獻購表格與預訂表格的條文類似，需填寫的資料包括名字、身份證號碼、或公司號碼與地址、產業的資料、購買價、訂金、在取得准證後需在期限內簽署合約，以及可能被沒收訂金的附帶條件。
與訂購表格一樣，獻購表格讓購屋者以原有價格購買產業，在簽署獻購表格時，購屋者將支付訂金，他可以在發展商取得廣告與銷售准證後，向發展商購買產業。
獻購文件如何發揮作用？
發展商的律師將負責獻購文件的準備，在購屋者簽署有關表格後，購屋者支付的訂金將交給發展商律師保管，直到發展商取得廣告與銷售准證。
在取得准證後，律師將把訂金交給發展商，購屋者將在獻購文件誌明的日期內簽署合約，在簽署合約時，他將支付的屋款相等於10%屋價、再扣掉之前已討的訂金，假設訂金是2%，那麼，他需要支付的是8%的屋價。
買賣合約簽署後，接下來就是等待按正規的房屋分階段完工程序。
假如獻購文件是合法的，購屋者可以擁有本身的代表律師，在需要與必要的情況下，對獻購文件的一些條件做出修訂。
其他一些附加條文包括：假如發展商沒有在預定的期限內取得廣告與銷售准證，購屋者可以提出終止交易、取回訂金的要求。
此外，購屋者可以提出由購屋者代表律師握該筆訂金的要求，在發展商取得廣告與銷售准證後，需按表格指定的期限內發放給發展商。
註：摘譯自陳清雄律師（Robert Tan）著書：“向發展商購屋，你需要掌握的常識”（Buying Property From Developers、What you need to know and do）（星洲日報／投資致富‧一手產業）
[星洲日報／投資致富]
現金購屋有何風險？
周先生說，他前年脫售了一些產業，過後與太太聯名簽署買賣合約，訂購一間大約30萬令吉的房屋，已支付10%首期錢。
他表示：準備用現金購買房屋，但又擔心發展商收盤或房屋計劃被擱置一邊。
在信中，他提出以下問題：
1. 如果用現金購買房屋，會有甚麼風險？
2. 假如向銀行貸款購買房屋，會比較安全嗎？
答：假如是用現金買，主要得虧損房屋興建期間，本金存放在銀行的利息，如果是向銀行貸款，在銀行發放屋款給發展商後，會向貸款者收取按工程進展利息；另外，還需要花費簽署貸款合約律師費及其他費用。
不過，銀行為保障本身的利益，會向發展商索取一些保證文件，萬一發展商陷入財務困境，屋地會受到保護，貸款者銀行可以向發展商銀行提出贖回要求。
不論是以現金或向銀行貸款購買房屋，假如遇到房屋發展計劃擱置一邊，一樣倒霉，譬如說已付了5萬令吉，而工程進展卻遙遙無期，或是自己付了10%，其他由銀行支付，即使工程停頓下來，銀行依然會向貸款者徵收已付屋款利息。（星洲日報／投資致富‧產業問診室）
[星洲日報／投資致富]
他表示：準備用現金購買房屋，但又擔心發展商收盤或房屋計劃被擱置一邊。
在信中，他提出以下問題：
1. 如果用現金購買房屋，會有甚麼風險？
2. 假如向銀行貸款購買房屋，會比較安全嗎？
答：假如是用現金買，主要得虧損房屋興建期間，本金存放在銀行的利息，如果是向銀行貸款，在銀行發放屋款給發展商後，會向貸款者收取按工程進展利息；另外，還需要花費簽署貸款合約律師費及其他費用。
不過，銀行為保障本身的利益，會向發展商索取一些保證文件，萬一發展商陷入財務困境，屋地會受到保護，貸款者銀行可以向發展商銀行提出贖回要求。
不論是以現金或向銀行貸款購買房屋，假如遇到房屋發展計劃擱置一邊，一樣倒霉，譬如說已付了5萬令吉，而工程進展卻遙遙無期，或是自己付了10%，其他由銀行支付，即使工程停頓下來，銀行依然會向貸款者徵收已付屋款利息。（星洲日報／投資致富‧產業問診室）
[星洲日報／投資致富]
前業主欠債‧房屋未能轉名
砂拉越的邱先生透過某律師介紹，2009年在某銀行的房屋競標中，成功買下一間雙層排屋，不過，後來發現這間房屋的前業主，還欠了發展商一筆錢，結果因為這個原因，至今房屋仍未能轉換名字，儘管已經繳交訂金與律師費。
發展商因此向他追討4萬令吉，才願意簽署相關文件，不過，介紹購買這間房屋的律師說，發展商有可能會向他繼續追討，並建議他將這件事情交給他處理。
律師還告訴他打贏官司的勝算很高，結果，花了兩萬令吉還是沒有結果，現在打算與對方律師協議。
請問：
1. 在這種情況下，有沒有更好的處理方式？
2. 銀行售賣這間有問題的房屋，對買主而言，有沒有更好的方法維護權益？（銀行表示，在合同裡有相關條規，可以讓他們不需負責）
3. 針對這名律師，事前沒有告訴我們有關房屋存在的問題，以及影響效應，是否可以對他採取行動？（已交了接近2萬令吉的律師費）
4. 如果與對方協議（對方律師追討2萬令吉），要如何確保對方不再聲討後續的費用？以及可以成功將房屋轉移到我的名下？
答：邱先生，我們希望如果有害群之馬，應該馬上現身負其責任。
你說“透過某律師介紹”，不知你有否聘請他處理競標之前、之時和之後的法律事宜？
如果沒有，無法要求這名律師負責。
你是無律師代表之下取標，並不透徹知曉招標的法律，和得標者其它方面的債務責任。這個“不知”可惜在司法上不能構成理由，無法要求他方負責。所以，我們要注意，沒有律師代表之時，務求自己對於法律透徹明瞭，方能交涉。
可是，如果你能夠證明律師在某情況之下，與你訂立了某種形式的律師與客戶之間的關係，處理競標之前、之時和之後的法律事宜，這時，你可以進行探討律師是否失職。
請大家注意一個重點，我們要向人追討法律責任之前，必須取得事件的真相，這是我們個人，對於整個司法制度、法律平等的認知。
所以，邱先生可以細細分析，看看實情趨向何方。
答1：我們能夠推算問題出處，在於發展商認為，發展商與拍賣的銀行債主、法院庭令和得標買主的邱先生，並未構成法律上交涉的責任關係。也就是，拍賣及過名，只是銀行、舊業主和新業主邱先生之間的法律程序和責任，因為整件事情，只是舊業主欠銀行錢、房子被拍賣和新業主的產生，可以說皆與發展商無關，唯一牽連的，是舊業主尚欠發展商管理費。
那麼法律上，銀行在拍賣房子之時，是否必須關注此事？在拍賣通告書上是否出現有關條文？是否合乎律法，甚至憲法？還有，發展商是否在拍賣時必須收到銀行方面的通知，和進行某種拍賣程序當中債務的追討？另外，現在發展商拒絕過名給邱先生，在法律上又是否站得住腳，這些都是法律官司問題。
我相信當初律師都曾向邱先生探討過這些問題。
諮詢其他律師勝算幾率
現在我覺得更好的處理方式，就是諮詢其他至少兩個專業律師，看看你與發展商的官司，真正的勝算幾率有多大？
然後再詢問和分析現在律師的官司處理方式，是否妥當？如果非然，可考慮更換律師，然後，再根據新律師的指示，繼續官司、或者進行協議。
接下來，再考慮是否要向舊律師追討責任？不過要注意，諮詢新律師的時候，告訴他們你只徵求書面諮詢（written opinion、就是要他們提供書面上，而不只是口頭上的意見），並不求他們接管此案和往後的事宜。
我認為這樣，你另外要付的費用不會太大，同時更能確定新律師們在no fear no favour（無畏、無偏坦）的環境下，給予“大公無私”及準確意見。
須瞭解法律程序
答2：銀行是通過法院拍賣房子的。一般上，法院和拍賣主（銀行）給予招標者的程序通知，都已經過法律審核，所以，得標者/新買主如果不聘請律師跟上，就只有自己通過透徹瞭解這項法律和程序，作為維護權益的方法。
答3：此問題上面已經交待，至於官司處理和律師費的問題，也請參考上述答案。
通過法院登記協議
答4：雙方通過法院登記協議，即成定案。協議當然主要是邱先生代舊業主償還協議下的債務後，獲取基本的房產過名了。法院登記的協議，當然也盡可能包容所有可預見的後續費用和法律問題。如此登記，雙方放棄過名之前的所有權益，接下來可以“和好如初，和平相處”。
[投資致富]
商用產業成長強穩
商用產業在2010年的交易取得19.4%的成長率，比2009年的5.0%來得強穩，在2010年的財政預算案，政府塑造比較多的商業機會，特別是在鄉區策略性地點，當局撥款3千萬令吉給城市發展控股，以便在全國各地興建300個單位的鄉鎮小店。
此外，政府也在布城及電子資訊城發展更多有活力的城鎮，在布城推行的計劃包括興建霸級市場、國際學校、藝術畫廊、歷史博物院、休閒中心等。
在電子資訊城，其中一些將推行的計劃包括興建可負擔房屋、霸級市場、商業大廈、泊車位、休閒中心及學校。
另一方面，工業產業在2010年的交易，取得22.11%成長率，比2009年的負0.8%大有改善，在2010年，海外直接投資幾乎增加4倍，達到213億5千萬令吉，2009年的數額只是42億5千萬令吉，海外直接投資增加有助於帶動工業產業的發展。
在休閒產業領域，3至5星級酒店的表現較為遜色，雖然遊客人數增加，截至2010年杪，大馬的遊客人數達2千460萬人，比前期的2千360萬人增加4.2%。
此外，農業領域也在2010財政預算案之下獲得撥款，其中包括撥款1億3千700萬令吉提昇與改善稻田的水利灌溉系統，7千萬令吉供登嘉樓的巴耶北達水壩，勿述稻田灌溉系統的水供容量將獲得加強，還有8千200萬令吉讓水產養殖業設施現代化。
資料來源：全國產業資訊中心（星洲日報／投資致富‧房產傳真）
[星洲日報／投資致富]
此外，政府也在布城及電子資訊城發展更多有活力的城鎮，在布城推行的計劃包括興建霸級市場、國際學校、藝術畫廊、歷史博物院、休閒中心等。
在電子資訊城，其中一些將推行的計劃包括興建可負擔房屋、霸級市場、商業大廈、泊車位、休閒中心及學校。
另一方面，工業產業在2010年的交易，取得22.11%成長率，比2009年的負0.8%大有改善，在2010年，海外直接投資幾乎增加4倍，達到213億5千萬令吉，2009年的數額只是42億5千萬令吉，海外直接投資增加有助於帶動工業產業的發展。
在休閒產業領域，3至5星級酒店的表現較為遜色，雖然遊客人數增加，截至2010年杪，大馬的遊客人數達2千460萬人，比前期的2千360萬人增加4.2%。
此外，農業領域也在2010財政預算案之下獲得撥款，其中包括撥款1億3千700萬令吉提昇與改善稻田的水利灌溉系統，7千萬令吉供登嘉樓的巴耶北達水壩，勿述稻田灌溉系統的水供容量將獲得加強，還有8千200萬令吉讓水產養殖業設施現代化。
資料來源：全國產業資訊中心（星洲日報／投資致富‧房產傳真）
[星洲日報／投資致富]
财女风情:你的投资时钟是几点？
“投资与投机之间永远是一线之隔，尤其是当所有市场的参与者都沉浸在欢愉的气氛中时更是如此，再也没有比大笔不劳而获的金钱更能让人失去理性。
面对这种情况，再正常的人也会像参加舞会的灰姑娘一样被冲昏头，他们明知在舞会中多待一会儿，也就是继续将大笔资金投入到投机之中，南瓜马车与驾车老鼠现出原形的概率也就越高，但他们就是舍不得错过这场盛大舞会的任何一分钟。
所有人都打算继续待到最后一刻才离开，但问题是这次舞会的时钟，根本就没有指针！”--《巴菲特致股东的一封信》。
日常的生活我们可根据时钟作出安排，比如6点起床，9点上班。那么，投资是否也可以做到有“时”可依呢？
投资也有时钟？
答案：是！
美林在超过30年的数据统计分析中，发现了“经济时钟” 是一种将经济周期与资产和行业轮动联系起来投资研究方法。
时钟定律
美林在2004年10月发布了一篇名为《The Investment Clock》的研究报告，美林用自1973年4月至2004年7月美国完整的超过30年的资产和行业回报率数据，验证了投资时钟的合理性，力证市场的走势，必然离不开时钟定律，一定会从顺时钟的方向运转而得到以下主要结论：
一个完整的经济周期为：危机（3点-6点）、萧条（6点-9点）、复苏（9点-12点）、繁荣（12点-3点）
“经济时钟”是一个用于指导资产配置的实用理论，即通过投资时钟的“报时功能”，识别经济运行周期中的拐点。
影响各类资产盈利及波动性（风险）的因素众多，但经济层面所决定的基本面因素，是最为根本的因素。
投资者可根据“投资时钟”所指示的经济周期，结合宏观经济特征，预测后市走势，提前介入到与经济周期匹配、有利的资产进行配置，以期获取满意的投资收益。
例如，当经济增长加快，股票表现好，周期性行业如高科技股或钢铁股表现将超过大市；当经济增长放缓，债券、现金及防守性投资组合表现超过大市。
降低自我最安全投资法
投资是一门心理艺术，所以降低自我是最安全的投资方法。
1. 设定长期观点（long-term outlook）
只有设定了长期的观点，你才不会那么情绪化，少点害怕，也少点贪婪。
“长期”到底要多长？比3个月长？当然。比一年长？当然；但绝对比“永远”短。
专注在3到5年，因为这长期观点较不常改变，但3到5个月短期的经济方向和金融市场容易受到氛围影响而改变；一旦环境发生改变，情绪便会因感受到环境压力而波动起伏。
因此，在长期观点（3至5年）的大架构下，你也要留意资金流向，感受市场的潮流和想法，随着产业循环起伏（6到12个月），微幅调整资产配置。
2. 学“由上而下”（Top-down process）投资管理学
还有一点是投资管理学上称之为“由上而下”，由上而下的长期趋势，诸如通膨往上或往下，经济成长强劲或走弱，企业长期获利状况如何。
投资人应该以3到5年长期观点做基础，然后根据产业循环调整资产配置，比较容易让理性的研究和努力工作主导投资，而非情绪扰乱。
一旦自我情绪浮现，重新校正回归正途，并调整投资闹钟，有助于日后在投资的每一段时间，都在正确时间醒来。
看清总体大趋势
每个投资者都有个心理闹钟，秘诀在于何时响起，以及怎么调整。
按照多数人的生活作息，早上6点应该是起床的最佳时间，那么假设最佳投资时间在6点，如果要获得最大收益，投资闹钟应该在6点左右叫醒你。
现在问题在于，只要是人类，投资的时候都会被情绪所拖累，因为混杂着贪婪与恐惧的情绪，闹钟通常不会在6点钟叫醒你；许多投资人都买高卖低，最后就被恐惧洗出市场，此时就是市场底部。
“投资时钟”理论的缺陷是不能准确预测经济周期的拐点，并且各类资产交接的拐点也没有明确的界限。
但它可以帮助投资者看清总体的大趋势、市场所处的阶段和下一个阶段会转向什么状态。
因此，每个投资者都应该结合自身实际情况做好家庭资产配置，分配好家庭可投资资金在股票、债券、货币等大类资产上的投资比例。
尽管每轮经济周期都有其独特之处，但也存在着相似的逻辑。
在选择定投品种时，不妨常在“投资时钟”上看看现在几点了？
罗凤琴 ■金融系硕士/合格财务规划师/认证财务规划师/益资利投资银行经纪
Asian Stocks Climb on Better U.S. Spending; Car Sales Boost Honda, Toyota
Asian stocks rose for a fourth day, set for their longest streak of daily advances since July, after U.S. consumer spending and car sales increased and as companies across the region reported profit that beat estimates.
Samsung Electronics Co., South Korea’s No. 1 exporter of consumer electronics, added 1.2 percent in Seoul. Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), the world’s biggest carmaker, advanced 2 percent. Honda Motor Co., which gets about 44 percent of sales from North America, jumped 3 percent. Inpex Corp. (1605), Japan’s largest energy explorer increased 2.3 percent after crude oil futures rose.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1 percent to 123.2 as of 9:46 a.m. in Tokyo, with almost 10 stocks rising for each that fell. The measure snapped four weeks of losses last week on speculation Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke would foreshadow measures to shore up the U.S. recovery. Bernanke didn’t announce new stimulus plans and instead decided to extend next month’s policy meeting to a second day.
“Personal spending data in the U.S. July was a surprise,” said Fumiyuki Nakanishi, a strategist at Tokyo-based SMBC Friend Securities Co. “The merger of Greek banks is positive for financial stocks as default by a Greek bank would deliver a huge blow to the European financial market.”
Samsung Electronics Co., South Korea’s No. 1 exporter of consumer electronics, added 1.2 percent in Seoul. Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), the world’s biggest carmaker, advanced 2 percent. Honda Motor Co., which gets about 44 percent of sales from North America, jumped 3 percent. Inpex Corp. (1605), Japan’s largest energy explorer increased 2.3 percent after crude oil futures rose.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1 percent to 123.2 as of 9:46 a.m. in Tokyo, with almost 10 stocks rising for each that fell. The measure snapped four weeks of losses last week on speculation Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke would foreshadow measures to shore up the U.S. recovery. Bernanke didn’t announce new stimulus plans and instead decided to extend next month’s policy meeting to a second day.
“Personal spending data in the U.S. July was a surprise,” said Fumiyuki Nakanishi, a strategist at Tokyo-based SMBC Friend Securities Co. “The merger of Greek banks is positive for financial stocks as default by a Greek bank would deliver a huge blow to the European financial market.”
Monday, August 29, 2011
5種人應避開股市
對於愛撿便宜貨和愛冒險的人來說，現在似乎是買股票的好時機。但是專家說，許多想要投資的人都應該克制一下往股市裡投更多的錢，至少目前應該這樣。
科羅拉多威斯特投資（Colorado West Investments）的負責人凱文桑德福（Kevin Sanderford）說，“隨著時間的推移，我發現我的多數客戶有很高的風險容忍度，但卻沒有一個有很高的虧損容忍度。”
以下是幾種不大能受得了賠錢打擊的人：
一、花銷大的人
如果你在未來六至十二個月裡需要花錢買車、付學費、結婚或者買新房子，目前就不是一個冒過度風險買入股票的時候，儘管它很誘人。
阿默普萊斯金融服務（Ameriprise Financial Services）的金融顧問蓋瑞文尼克（Gary Winnick）說，“在這個時候你不會想把自己的短期現金投到市場裡去。5至7年對投資來說是一個正常時間範圍。”
鑒於經濟氣候的不確定性，金融規劃師約翰薩斯丁那（John E.Sestina）說，“你也應該用多餘的錢去儘快還掉信用卡的欠債。”
二、緊張的投資者
舊金山金門大學心理和營銷教授基特雅若（Kit Yarrow）說，緊張或過度情緒化的人，在玩股票時要三思而行。
她說，“任何頭腦發熱的人都應該避免往股市裡投太多的錢，投資股票需要平心靜氣，不會對市場調整有過度反應。”她說，投資者需要自製和耐心。
金融規劃師雷米格農（Ray Mignone）說，“如果你是保守型投資者，就繼續保守吧。有些人不能忍受市場的反復無常，想在底部賣掉股票。”
三、嬰兒潮一族
斯萊格爾金融（Slagle Financial）的創始人查德斯萊格爾（Chad Slagle）說，每天都有一萬名嬰兒潮一族退休，他們應該把60%至70%的錢放在安全的地方，這可不包括股票。
他說，“準備退休的人無法承受他們的財富一星期之內虧掉20%。如果你在六十多歲還沒有把多數投資鎖住，那你可是選錯財務顧問了。”
四、企業主
桑德福說，“企業主的絕大多數淨資產被公司佔用，這意味著他們已經擁有股票了。”
他表示，“110減去你的年齡等於你的股票資產比例”，這個一般公式不適用於許多自己的生意直接受到經濟衰退影響的人。“如果經濟陷入困境，你的生意可能和股票市場一起吃苦頭，所以你需要格外保守。”
薩斯丁那說，擁有個人退休賬戶仍然很重要，但是“許多小企業主崇向自己的企業再投資獲得更好的回報”。
五、賭徒
那些想賺快錢的投資新手要小心。
Relative Value Partners公司的投資總監莫里弗提格（Maury Fertig）說，“如果你有賭博心理，帶著一百美元去賭場更好。股市是長期投資的好地方，但是這對投機散客來說卻不一定。”
米格農建議他那些最魯莽蠻幹的客戶設一個小賬戶進行散戶投資，這樣他可以幫他們管理他們的大部份金錢，“他們造成的損失會小些”。（星洲日報／投資致富‧財富教室）
[星洲日報／投資致富]
财女风情:人生资产负债表
企业资产负债表（the Balance Sheet)也称为财务状况表，表示企业在一定日期（通常为各会计期末）的财务状况（即资产、负债和业主权益的状况）的主要会计报表。
我们的生活也与企业一样，都可以用一张“人生资产负债表”来概括。
很多人搞不清楚什么是资产，什么是负债。
实际上很好区分，你只要以这样一个尺度去衡量就行了：资产是为你创造收入的事物，负债是让你产生支出的事物。
有意义的付出，形成你的资产。你应该做而没有做和错误是你的负债，两者价差就是你的权益。
实现生活本质
在回首往事的时候，每个人的一生，都能通过一张资产负债表描绘出来。
生活的本质就在于此：每一项资产的获得，总是通过另一项资产的减少或者负债的增加来实现。
换句话说，想要得到某些东西，一定也会付出另一些东西以达到平衡。
人们常以一个人拥有资产，特别是物质资产的多寡，来判断其人生成与败，但忽略了与资产相伴相生的负债方的支出。
现金，是资产栏的第一项。一个令人爱恨交加，曾经成就过无数人，也葬送了许多人的半是天使半是魔的人间尤物。这项成本，意味着无形资产的减少，亲情友情人情的由温趋凉，与家人的聚少离多；心情心灵的荒原化程度逐步加剧；充实丰富知识的时间的减少。也可能意味着殚精竭虑、身心憔悴、市场或其他风险系数等债务项目的增加。
父母，是我们一出生就获得的原始资产。
我们从小开始，父母就努力在我们身上，为着我们的未来投资，长大以后，各分东西，最后却只记得计算金钱和房子？
虽然它也是我们的一项长期负债，明细科目叫做赡养。
但父母从小投资在我们身上，从来没有像我们计较投资回酬那样斤斤计较。
父母与我们亲近的日子有限，多点关怀多点时间陪伴，树欲静而风不止，子欲养而亲不待……这是很多人的痛，也是很多人一辈子的遗憾。
有些人还可能拥有另一项资产——兄弟姐妹。与此相应的债务叫做照顾。
资不抵债 婚姻最该受重视
股市狂热，人人入市，在每天盘点着的金钱的升与降时，又有谁真正算过婚姻这笔账，而这岂不该是每个人一生中最该重视的一项投资，然这项投资成为“资产”还是“负债”将关乎其他各项投资的收益。
联合爱情报表
爱情是会计核算，靠的是算计；婚姻是财务管理，靠的是运营。
婚姻=责任+忍耐，正如：资产=负债+权益。
没有忍耐，婚姻不会增值；忍耐是零或负数，婚姻属“资不抵债”。
爱情、婚姻就像合并报表，既合并幸福，也要包容对方，还要对个性和缺点做抵销分录。
子女，更是举足轻重的资产项。
这是生命的延续和传承，同时更是一项沉重的负债，为人父母者后半生最大的操劳和牵挂。
现今大多是双薪家庭，朝九晚五，生活及婚姻又被许许多多的琐事所填满，做父母的在心情及时间上已自顾不暇，那里还要足够的心力和时间陪伴孩子？
而把孩子交给保姆、女佣kakak、补习班、安亲班……
真的，孩子其实要的并不多。
金钱、房子、名利、地位、面子、学问，等等都是大人要的，我们做父母的自以为是地为孩子的将来奋斗。
勿错过陪孩子
你错过了多少孩子成长的过程？
孩子开始走的第一步你陪在他的身边吗？
你究竟错过了多少次用金钱也买不回的孩子成长过程？
养育孩子也许是一条看不到尽头的路，只要抱持着以孩子的立场为孩子设想的一颗心就足够了。
坚持锻炼维持健康
还有健康，这是每个人都需要的基本资产，当然由坚持锻炼这项负债来维护其平衡。
当我们面临生命结算时，我们会遗憾“早知道应该多花点时间与家人共处上”吗？还是遗憾人生的资产负债表还有未尽的责任负债呢？
人生这张资产负债表，不需要审计中介机构的年审和评价，它只由人生价值的实现状况来检验。
你的人生资产负债表又是如何呢？
有空想一想吧！在投资理财的同时，别忘了投资回报率最高的，爱你的家人。
罗凤琴 ■金融系硕士/合格财务规划师/认证财务规划师/益资利投资银行经纪
[南洋商报]
U.S. Stock-Index Futures Advance After Irene
U.S. stock futures rose, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will extend its first weekly gain since July, amid optimism the economy will expand.
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) rallied at least 1.6 percent, following gains in European banks. Travelers Cos. rose 2.6 percent as Hurricane Irene’s estimated cost to insurers declined as the storm lost strength en route to New York. Pfizer Inc. (PFE) added 3.2 percent after the world’s largest drugmaker won U.S. approval to sell a drug to treat lung cancer.
S&P 500 futures expiring in September rose 1.2 percent to 1,188.70 at 9 a.m. in New York. The index climbed 4.7 percent last week, the biggest increase in almost two months, as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke indicated the economy isn’t weak enough to warrant immediate stimulus via a third round of so-called quantitative easing, or QE3. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 110 points, or 1 percent, to 11,389.
“There’s been a sort of positive interpretation of what’s been said or not said about the absence of new measures such as QE3,” Yves Maillot, head of investments at Robeco Gestions in Paris, which oversees $6.78 billion, said in a telephone interview. “The market wanted to react well. We’re still in this momentum of rebound.”
Equities climbed after Americans’ spending increased more than economists forecast while incomes grew at the projected pace. S&P 500 futures also advanced after two Greek banks, EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA and Alpha Bank SA, discussed merging to bolster their assets. Equities in Greece rallied the most in more than 20 years.
On The Edge
Investors are paying less for equities than they have during every recession since Ronald Reagan was president amid growing concern that the economy is on the edge of another recession. The S&P 500 has lost 13 percent in the past five weeks, sending its price-earnings ratio down to 12.9. That’s 3.5 percent less than the average multiple during the 10 contractions since 1949 and a level last reached in 1982, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Stocks dropped and then rebounded on Aug. 26 after Bernanke’s speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in which he said the central bank still has tools to stimulate the economy without signaling he will use them. He echoed comments from dissenting members of the Federal Open Market Committee who said data aren’t pointing to a recession.
Consumer spending climbed more than forecast in July as Americans dipped into savings to buy cars and cool their homes, showing the biggest part of the economy is holding up. Purchases rose 0.8 percent, the biggest gain since February, after a 0.1 percent decline the prior month, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 0.5 percent increase.
Banks Rally
Bank of America gained 3.1 percent to $8, while JPMorgan rose 1.6 percent to $36.79.
Travelers added 2.6 percent to $49.55. Hurricane Irene’s estimated cost to insurers fell to about $2.6 billion, according to Kinetic Analysis Corp., a firm that predicts the effects of disasters. That compares with a projection last week from the Silver Spring, Maryland-based company of as much as $14 billion when Irene was forecast to make landfall in New York as a Category 2 hurricane. Total economic losses, including those that aren’t insured, may be about $7 billion.
Pfizer rose 3.2 percent to $18.80. The treatment, crizotinib, is the leading candidate among more than 20 tumor- fighting medicines the company is developing to help replace sales expected to be lost to generic drugs.
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) rallied at least 1.6 percent, following gains in European banks. Travelers Cos. rose 2.6 percent as Hurricane Irene’s estimated cost to insurers declined as the storm lost strength en route to New York. Pfizer Inc. (PFE) added 3.2 percent after the world’s largest drugmaker won U.S. approval to sell a drug to treat lung cancer.
S&P 500 futures expiring in September rose 1.2 percent to 1,188.70 at 9 a.m. in New York. The index climbed 4.7 percent last week, the biggest increase in almost two months, as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke indicated the economy isn’t weak enough to warrant immediate stimulus via a third round of so-called quantitative easing, or QE3. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 110 points, or 1 percent, to 11,389.
“There’s been a sort of positive interpretation of what’s been said or not said about the absence of new measures such as QE3,” Yves Maillot, head of investments at Robeco Gestions in Paris, which oversees $6.78 billion, said in a telephone interview. “The market wanted to react well. We’re still in this momentum of rebound.”
Equities climbed after Americans’ spending increased more than economists forecast while incomes grew at the projected pace. S&P 500 futures also advanced after two Greek banks, EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA and Alpha Bank SA, discussed merging to bolster their assets. Equities in Greece rallied the most in more than 20 years.
On The Edge
Investors are paying less for equities than they have during every recession since Ronald Reagan was president amid growing concern that the economy is on the edge of another recession. The S&P 500 has lost 13 percent in the past five weeks, sending its price-earnings ratio down to 12.9. That’s 3.5 percent less than the average multiple during the 10 contractions since 1949 and a level last reached in 1982, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Stocks dropped and then rebounded on Aug. 26 after Bernanke’s speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in which he said the central bank still has tools to stimulate the economy without signaling he will use them. He echoed comments from dissenting members of the Federal Open Market Committee who said data aren’t pointing to a recession.
Consumer spending climbed more than forecast in July as Americans dipped into savings to buy cars and cool their homes, showing the biggest part of the economy is holding up. Purchases rose 0.8 percent, the biggest gain since February, after a 0.1 percent decline the prior month, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 0.5 percent increase.
Banks Rally
Bank of America gained 3.1 percent to $8, while JPMorgan rose 1.6 percent to $36.79.
Travelers added 2.6 percent to $49.55. Hurricane Irene’s estimated cost to insurers fell to about $2.6 billion, according to Kinetic Analysis Corp., a firm that predicts the effects of disasters. That compares with a projection last week from the Silver Spring, Maryland-based company of as much as $14 billion when Irene was forecast to make landfall in New York as a Category 2 hurricane. Total economic losses, including those that aren’t insured, may be about $7 billion.
Pfizer rose 3.2 percent to $18.80. The treatment, crizotinib, is the leading candidate among more than 20 tumor- fighting medicines the company is developing to help replace sales expected to be lost to generic drugs.
European Stocks Rise Before U.S. Spending Data
European stocks rose after two days of losses dragged equities near to the cheapest valuation in more than two years and as investors awaited a report that may show U.S. consumer spending gained. Asian shares and U.S. index futures climbed.
National Bank of Greece SA (ETE) and Piraeus Bank SA (TPEIR) jumped at least 29 percent as EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA (EUROB) and Alpha Bank SA met to discuss a merger. Munich Re and Swiss Re Ltd., the world’s biggest reinsurers, gained more than 3 percent as the damage from Hurricane Irene in the U.S. was less severe than estimated. ProSiebenSat.1 Media AG (PSM) soared 4.4 percent after the German company said it will buy back shares.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.9 percent to 227.48 at 11:21 a.m. in London. The gauge has still fallen 22 percent from this year’s peak on Feb. 17 as European and U.S. economic reports trailed forecasts, adding to concern that the global economic recovery is at risk. The decline has left the measure trading at 9.5 times estimated earnings, near the cheapest since March 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The index advanced for the first week in five last week as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke indicated the economy isn’t deteriorating enough to warrant any immediate stimulus. He said a second day has been added to the next policy meeting in September to “allow a fuller discussion” of the economy and the Fed’s possible response.
More Action
“The interpretation of equity markets to Bernanke’s speech is positive,” said Matthias Jasper, head of equities at WGZ Bank AG in Dusseldorf. “He left the door open for more action. It’s not the best entry point, but it’s a good entry point if you’re not invested so far.”
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.6 percent today, while Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures rose 1.1 percent. The U.K. market is closed for a holiday today.
Investors are paying less for U.S. equities than they have during every recession since Ronald Reagan was president amid growing concern that the economy is on the edge of another recession. The S&P 500 has lost 13 percent in the past five weeks, sending its price-earnings ratio down to 12.9. That’s 3.5 percent less than the average multiple during the 10 contractions since 1949 and a level last reached in 1982, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Jackson Hole
As central bankers gathered at an annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this weekend, Bernanke urged adoption of “good, proactive housing policies” to reverse the depressed U.S. real estate market and warned lawmakers to avoid steps that may hurt short-term growth. Ewald Nowotny of the European Central Bank Governing Council said euro-area governments should expand the powers of their regional bailout fund.
Bernanke told the conference that the U.S. central bank still has a “range of tools” it could use to help the economy if needed, although he stopped short of signaling that the Fed would embark on a third round of government bond buying.
The U.S. won’t slip into recession after Bernanke said the central bank has more tools to support growth if needed, said Templeton Asset Management’s Mark Mobius.
“We have no interest-rates risk in America in the short and long term,” said Robert Halver, chief strategist at Baader Bank AG in Frankfurt. “New economic programs could be launched with such low interest rates. From a fundamental point of view it’s a good entry point but it’s all about politics. Bernanke can’t disappoint in September.”
U.S. Economy
A report today may show U.S. consumer spending climbed in July. Purchases rose 0.5 percent after a 0.2 percent decline the prior month, according to the median estimate of 64 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Another report may show contract signings for sales of existing homes fell last month.
National Bank of Greece, the country’s largest bank, surged 30 percent to 3.61 euros while Piraeus Bank jumped 29 percent to 72 euro cents. A surge in banking shares led Greece’s benchmark ASE Index to the biggest gain in 20 years. The gauge jumped 11 percent, rebounding from the lowest level since 1996.
Eurobank and Alpha Bank were suspended from trading as the boards of Greece’s second- and third-biggest banks met to discuss a possible merger aimed at bolstering their assets and helping them ride out a deepening recession and the country’s debt crisis. A joint press conference will be held at 2 p.m. in Athens, the banks said.
Munich Re and Swiss Re gained 3.1 percent to 88.37 euros and 3.5 percent to 41.10 Swiss francs, respectively.
Irene Cost
Hurricane Irene’s estimated cost to insurers fell to about $2.6 billion in the U.S. as the storm lost strength en route to New York, according to Kinetic Analysis Corp., a firm that predicts the effects of disasters. That compares with a projection last week from the Silver Spring, Maryland-based company of as much as $14 billion.
Construction companies posted the best performance among 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600 as Holcim Ltd. (HOLN), the world’s second-biggest cement maker, rallied 3.3 percent to 47.80 francs.
ProSiebenSat.1 Media soared 4.4 percent to 12.33 euros as Germany’s biggest private broadcaster said it will repurchase up to 2.5 million non-voting, preferred shares.
Banco Popolare SC (BP) added 2.2 percent to 1.15 euros as Italy’s fifth-biggest bank approved a plan to merge some units into the holding company as part of measures to increase efficiency and reduce costs. The lender said second-quarter net income fell 63 percent to 131.4 million euros.
Roche Holding AG (ROG) rose 1.2 percent to 138.1 francs. The company said it expects government austerity measures to boost its medical-diagnostics unit in the next three to five years thanks to broader use of tests to see which patients should use expensive treatments.
Landi Renzo SpA (LR) slid 5.1 percent to 1.61 euros as BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research downgraded the Italian maker of injection systems for alternative fuels to “underperform” from “buy.” Intermonte SIM SpA also cut its recommendation on the stock to “underperform.”
National Bank of Greece SA (ETE) and Piraeus Bank SA (TPEIR) jumped at least 29 percent as EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA (EUROB) and Alpha Bank SA met to discuss a merger. Munich Re and Swiss Re Ltd., the world’s biggest reinsurers, gained more than 3 percent as the damage from Hurricane Irene in the U.S. was less severe than estimated. ProSiebenSat.1 Media AG (PSM) soared 4.4 percent after the German company said it will buy back shares.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.9 percent to 227.48 at 11:21 a.m. in London. The gauge has still fallen 22 percent from this year’s peak on Feb. 17 as European and U.S. economic reports trailed forecasts, adding to concern that the global economic recovery is at risk. The decline has left the measure trading at 9.5 times estimated earnings, near the cheapest since March 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The index advanced for the first week in five last week as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke indicated the economy isn’t deteriorating enough to warrant any immediate stimulus. He said a second day has been added to the next policy meeting in September to “allow a fuller discussion” of the economy and the Fed’s possible response.
More Action
“The interpretation of equity markets to Bernanke’s speech is positive,” said Matthias Jasper, head of equities at WGZ Bank AG in Dusseldorf. “He left the door open for more action. It’s not the best entry point, but it’s a good entry point if you’re not invested so far.”
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.6 percent today, while Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures rose 1.1 percent. The U.K. market is closed for a holiday today.
Investors are paying less for U.S. equities than they have during every recession since Ronald Reagan was president amid growing concern that the economy is on the edge of another recession. The S&P 500 has lost 13 percent in the past five weeks, sending its price-earnings ratio down to 12.9. That’s 3.5 percent less than the average multiple during the 10 contractions since 1949 and a level last reached in 1982, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Jackson Hole
As central bankers gathered at an annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this weekend, Bernanke urged adoption of “good, proactive housing policies” to reverse the depressed U.S. real estate market and warned lawmakers to avoid steps that may hurt short-term growth. Ewald Nowotny of the European Central Bank Governing Council said euro-area governments should expand the powers of their regional bailout fund.
Bernanke told the conference that the U.S. central bank still has a “range of tools” it could use to help the economy if needed, although he stopped short of signaling that the Fed would embark on a third round of government bond buying.
The U.S. won’t slip into recession after Bernanke said the central bank has more tools to support growth if needed, said Templeton Asset Management’s Mark Mobius.
“We have no interest-rates risk in America in the short and long term,” said Robert Halver, chief strategist at Baader Bank AG in Frankfurt. “New economic programs could be launched with such low interest rates. From a fundamental point of view it’s a good entry point but it’s all about politics. Bernanke can’t disappoint in September.”
U.S. Economy
A report today may show U.S. consumer spending climbed in July. Purchases rose 0.5 percent after a 0.2 percent decline the prior month, according to the median estimate of 64 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Another report may show contract signings for sales of existing homes fell last month.
National Bank of Greece, the country’s largest bank, surged 30 percent to 3.61 euros while Piraeus Bank jumped 29 percent to 72 euro cents. A surge in banking shares led Greece’s benchmark ASE Index to the biggest gain in 20 years. The gauge jumped 11 percent, rebounding from the lowest level since 1996.
Eurobank and Alpha Bank were suspended from trading as the boards of Greece’s second- and third-biggest banks met to discuss a possible merger aimed at bolstering their assets and helping them ride out a deepening recession and the country’s debt crisis. A joint press conference will be held at 2 p.m. in Athens, the banks said.
Munich Re and Swiss Re gained 3.1 percent to 88.37 euros and 3.5 percent to 41.10 Swiss francs, respectively.
Irene Cost
Hurricane Irene’s estimated cost to insurers fell to about $2.6 billion in the U.S. as the storm lost strength en route to New York, according to Kinetic Analysis Corp., a firm that predicts the effects of disasters. That compares with a projection last week from the Silver Spring, Maryland-based company of as much as $14 billion.
Construction companies posted the best performance among 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600 as Holcim Ltd. (HOLN), the world’s second-biggest cement maker, rallied 3.3 percent to 47.80 francs.
ProSiebenSat.1 Media soared 4.4 percent to 12.33 euros as Germany’s biggest private broadcaster said it will repurchase up to 2.5 million non-voting, preferred shares.
Banco Popolare SC (BP) added 2.2 percent to 1.15 euros as Italy’s fifth-biggest bank approved a plan to merge some units into the holding company as part of measures to increase efficiency and reduce costs. The lender said second-quarter net income fell 63 percent to 131.4 million euros.
Roche Holding AG (ROG) rose 1.2 percent to 138.1 francs. The company said it expects government austerity measures to boost its medical-diagnostics unit in the next three to five years thanks to broader use of tests to see which patients should use expensive treatments.
Landi Renzo SpA (LR) slid 5.1 percent to 1.61 euros as BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research downgraded the Italian maker of injection systems for alternative fuels to “underperform” from “buy.” Intermonte SIM SpA also cut its recommendation on the stock to “underperform.”
S&P 500 Falls to Reagan Recession Values
Investors are paying less for equities than they have during every recession since Ronald Reagan was president amid growing concern that the economy is on the edge of another recession.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has lost 13 percent in the past five weeks, sending its price-earnings ratio down to 12.9. That’s 3.5 percent less than the average multiple during the 10 contractions since 1949 and a level last reached in 1982, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bears say valuations show the U.S. remains in the slowdown that began in 2007. Unlike under Reagan, when U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker raised borrowing costs as high as 20 percent to combat inflation, interest rates are already near zero, leaving policy makers fewer tools to boost the economy, they say. Bulls say the ratios are so low because they reflect indiscriminate selling by investors convinced that any slowdown will turn into a repeat of the 2008 credit crisis.
“There are truly some terrific values out there in companies, but it’s a question of timing,” John Massey, a Jersey City, New Jersey-based fund manager who helps oversee $13 billion at SunAmerica Asset Management, said in a telephone interview on Aug. 26. “Right now, the market is very short-term sighted. Every day the market is up or down, and it’s much more of a macro call than anything else.”
$2.3 Trillion Drop
About $2.3 trillion has been erased from the market value of U.S. equities since the S&P 500’s recent high on July 22 after reports on housing and manufacturing trailed estimates, Europe’s debt crisis worsened and S&P stripped the U.S. of its AAA credit rating. The last time stocks in the index were cheaper on average during a recession was the early 1980s, a decade when the index surged 227 percent, or 403 percent including reinvested dividends.
At 1,176.80, the S&P 500 is trading at 10.8 times analysts’ forecast for profits in the next 12 months of $109.12 a share. For the P/E ratio to reach its five-decade average of 16.4 without shares appreciating, earnings would have to fall to about $71.76 a share, 22 percent below the last 12 months, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Should companies meet analysts’ profit estimates, the S&P 500 must advance to about 1,790 to trade at the average multiple of 16.4 since 1954, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s more than 50 percent above its last close. Futures on the S&P 500 expiring next month gained 1 percent to 1,185.9 at 7:48 a.m. in London today.
Worst Performers
Energy, financial and industrial companies have performed worst out of 10 groups in the S&P 500 in the past month, falling more than 16 percent, as investors fled so-called cyclical stocks that are most tied to economic growth. Utilities and makers of household products posted the smallest losses.
The index rallied 1.5 percent on Aug. 26, for the first weekly gain since July, after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Aug. 26 during a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the economy isn’t deteriorating enough to warrant any immediate stimulus. Optimism the U.S. will avoid a recession helped offset a Commerce Department report showing gross domestic product climbed at 1 percent in the second quarter, down from a 1.3 percent estimate.
The economy grew at a 0.4 percent annual pace in the first quarter of 2011, the slowest since the second quarter of 2009, when the recession had yet to end, according to data compiled by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Reagan Inflation
Runaway inflation at the start of Reagan’s presidency in 1981 spurred Volcker to lift the Fed funds rate, pushing the U.S. economy into a recession until November 1982. The S&P 500’s multiple sank to an average of 8 times earnings as record-high interest rates and 10-year Treasury yields above 15 percent reduced the appeal of equities. Rates dropped through the decade, helping fuel the equity rally.
Bernanke has held the target rate for overnight loans between banks near zero since December 2008 and pledged this month to keep it there through mid-2013.
“The Fed’s used up a lot of their big ammunition already,” Bruce Bittles, who helps oversee $85 billion as chief investment strategist at Milwaukee-based Robert W. Baird & Co., said in an Aug. 26 phone interview. “With earnings expectations coming down, P/E ratios are likely to remain lower than anticipated as well.”
Cheaper Valuations
During the credit crisis, the world’s largest economy shrank the most in any recession since the 1930s, according to the Commerce Department. Quarterly earnings among S&P 500 companies have almost doubled since ending an eight-period decline in September 2009. Valuations declined as the stock prices advanced at a slower rate, with the index climbing 11 percent since Sept. 30, 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
For TCW Group Inc.’s Komal Sri-Kumar, valuations must be lower to be attractive because the economy is stagnating. The S&P 500 has declined 10 percent since the start of June, the last month of the Fed’s second program of quantitative easing, known as QE2, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“Stocks have been at very high levels compared with a very weak economy,” Sri-Kumar, the chief global strategist at TCW, which oversees about $120 billion, said in a phone interview on Aug. 24. “When QE2 was introduced last August, you got a rally in equities prices for several months, but you didn’t get a big push up in economic growth.”
Sri-Kumar recommended defensive stocks in the consumer staples, utility and health-care industries.
Consumer Products
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG), the Cincinnati-based maker of Gillette razors, has slipped 2.6 percent since July 26, compared with a 13 percent decline by the S&P 500. This month, the world’s largest consumer-products company said 2011 revenue topped analysts’ estimates and reported a 15 percent increase in fourth-quarter profit on sales from emerging markets.
For Blackstone Group LP’s Byron Wien and Gamco Investors Inc.’s Howard Ward, the decline in valuations will prove temporary as investors buy back shares they sold in a panic after the U.S. lost its AAA credit rating at S&P.
General Electric Co. (GE) has fallen 15 percent this year even after reporting profits that topped analysts’ estimates in the first two quarters. CEO Jeff Immelt said last month that industrial earnings and sales should increase in the second half of 2011 and accelerate into 2012. While analysts estimate profit at the Fairfield, Connecticut-based company will jump 21 percent this year, shares are trading at their lowest valuation since 2009.
Market Decline
“Too much has been read into the stock market’s decline,” Ward, who helps oversee $35 million in Rye, New York, wrote in an Aug. 24 e-mail.
Corporate earnings are growing fast enough to boost equities, he said. Per-share profit at S&P 500 companies will rise 13 percent in 2012, the fourth straight year of increases, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Alcoa Inc. (AA), the country’s largest aluminum producer, and Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the world’s biggest maker of construction and mining equipment, were among the worst performers in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the last month, falling 25 percent and 19 percent through Aug. 26, respectively. Analysts estimate earnings will jump 21 percent in 2012 at New York-based Alcoa and 33 percent at Peoria, Illinois-based Caterpillar.
“The market’s anticipating economic growth will slow and earnings estimates are going to have to come lower,” Mark Bronzo, who helps manage $26 billion at Security Global Investors in Irvington, New York, said in a telephone interview on Aug. 24. “My gut is the stock market is attractive at these levels and we won’t go into a recession. We’ll be in a sluggish growth environment and eventually stocks will do better.”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has lost 13 percent in the past five weeks, sending its price-earnings ratio down to 12.9. That’s 3.5 percent less than the average multiple during the 10 contractions since 1949 and a level last reached in 1982, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bears say valuations show the U.S. remains in the slowdown that began in 2007. Unlike under Reagan, when U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker raised borrowing costs as high as 20 percent to combat inflation, interest rates are already near zero, leaving policy makers fewer tools to boost the economy, they say. Bulls say the ratios are so low because they reflect indiscriminate selling by investors convinced that any slowdown will turn into a repeat of the 2008 credit crisis.
“There are truly some terrific values out there in companies, but it’s a question of timing,” John Massey, a Jersey City, New Jersey-based fund manager who helps oversee $13 billion at SunAmerica Asset Management, said in a telephone interview on Aug. 26. “Right now, the market is very short-term sighted. Every day the market is up or down, and it’s much more of a macro call than anything else.”
$2.3 Trillion Drop
About $2.3 trillion has been erased from the market value of U.S. equities since the S&P 500’s recent high on July 22 after reports on housing and manufacturing trailed estimates, Europe’s debt crisis worsened and S&P stripped the U.S. of its AAA credit rating. The last time stocks in the index were cheaper on average during a recession was the early 1980s, a decade when the index surged 227 percent, or 403 percent including reinvested dividends.
At 1,176.80, the S&P 500 is trading at 10.8 times analysts’ forecast for profits in the next 12 months of $109.12 a share. For the P/E ratio to reach its five-decade average of 16.4 without shares appreciating, earnings would have to fall to about $71.76 a share, 22 percent below the last 12 months, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Should companies meet analysts’ profit estimates, the S&P 500 must advance to about 1,790 to trade at the average multiple of 16.4 since 1954, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s more than 50 percent above its last close. Futures on the S&P 500 expiring next month gained 1 percent to 1,185.9 at 7:48 a.m. in London today.
Worst Performers
Energy, financial and industrial companies have performed worst out of 10 groups in the S&P 500 in the past month, falling more than 16 percent, as investors fled so-called cyclical stocks that are most tied to economic growth. Utilities and makers of household products posted the smallest losses.
The index rallied 1.5 percent on Aug. 26, for the first weekly gain since July, after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Aug. 26 during a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the economy isn’t deteriorating enough to warrant any immediate stimulus. Optimism the U.S. will avoid a recession helped offset a Commerce Department report showing gross domestic product climbed at 1 percent in the second quarter, down from a 1.3 percent estimate.
The economy grew at a 0.4 percent annual pace in the first quarter of 2011, the slowest since the second quarter of 2009, when the recession had yet to end, according to data compiled by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Reagan Inflation
Runaway inflation at the start of Reagan’s presidency in 1981 spurred Volcker to lift the Fed funds rate, pushing the U.S. economy into a recession until November 1982. The S&P 500’s multiple sank to an average of 8 times earnings as record-high interest rates and 10-year Treasury yields above 15 percent reduced the appeal of equities. Rates dropped through the decade, helping fuel the equity rally.
Bernanke has held the target rate for overnight loans between banks near zero since December 2008 and pledged this month to keep it there through mid-2013.
“The Fed’s used up a lot of their big ammunition already,” Bruce Bittles, who helps oversee $85 billion as chief investment strategist at Milwaukee-based Robert W. Baird & Co., said in an Aug. 26 phone interview. “With earnings expectations coming down, P/E ratios are likely to remain lower than anticipated as well.”
Cheaper Valuations
During the credit crisis, the world’s largest economy shrank the most in any recession since the 1930s, according to the Commerce Department. Quarterly earnings among S&P 500 companies have almost doubled since ending an eight-period decline in September 2009. Valuations declined as the stock prices advanced at a slower rate, with the index climbing 11 percent since Sept. 30, 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
For TCW Group Inc.’s Komal Sri-Kumar, valuations must be lower to be attractive because the economy is stagnating. The S&P 500 has declined 10 percent since the start of June, the last month of the Fed’s second program of quantitative easing, known as QE2, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“Stocks have been at very high levels compared with a very weak economy,” Sri-Kumar, the chief global strategist at TCW, which oversees about $120 billion, said in a phone interview on Aug. 24. “When QE2 was introduced last August, you got a rally in equities prices for several months, but you didn’t get a big push up in economic growth.”
Sri-Kumar recommended defensive stocks in the consumer staples, utility and health-care industries.
Consumer Products
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG), the Cincinnati-based maker of Gillette razors, has slipped 2.6 percent since July 26, compared with a 13 percent decline by the S&P 500. This month, the world’s largest consumer-products company said 2011 revenue topped analysts’ estimates and reported a 15 percent increase in fourth-quarter profit on sales from emerging markets.
For Blackstone Group LP’s Byron Wien and Gamco Investors Inc.’s Howard Ward, the decline in valuations will prove temporary as investors buy back shares they sold in a panic after the U.S. lost its AAA credit rating at S&P.
General Electric Co. (GE) has fallen 15 percent this year even after reporting profits that topped analysts’ estimates in the first two quarters. CEO Jeff Immelt said last month that industrial earnings and sales should increase in the second half of 2011 and accelerate into 2012. While analysts estimate profit at the Fairfield, Connecticut-based company will jump 21 percent this year, shares are trading at their lowest valuation since 2009.
Market Decline
“Too much has been read into the stock market’s decline,” Ward, who helps oversee $35 million in Rye, New York, wrote in an Aug. 24 e-mail.
Corporate earnings are growing fast enough to boost equities, he said. Per-share profit at S&P 500 companies will rise 13 percent in 2012, the fourth straight year of increases, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Alcoa Inc. (AA), the country’s largest aluminum producer, and Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the world’s biggest maker of construction and mining equipment, were among the worst performers in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the last month, falling 25 percent and 19 percent through Aug. 26, respectively. Analysts estimate earnings will jump 21 percent in 2012 at New York-based Alcoa and 33 percent at Peoria, Illinois-based Caterpillar.
“The market’s anticipating economic growth will slow and earnings estimates are going to have to come lower,” Mark Bronzo, who helps manage $26 billion at Security Global Investors in Irvington, New York, said in a telephone interview on Aug. 24. “My gut is the stock market is attractive at these levels and we won’t go into a recession. We’ll be in a sluggish growth environment and eventually stocks will do better.”
观落阴，游地府探险队 8人成功勇闯鬼域
（槟城28日讯）阴风阵阵，51人蒙上裹着神符的布条，浩浩荡荡往地府之旅前进，路上或许布满荆棘、或许一片平坦，或遇到故人或遇到观音，惟最终庞大的“地府探险队”仅有7、8人成功勇闯地府，其余人只能“望门兴叹”！
吸引全马印尼信徒参与
由观音慈悲堂郭勇成妙慧上师主法的“观落阴，游地府”活动，吸引来自全马四面八方包括印尼的信徒参与，人人抱着期待且紧张的心情希望能到地府一游。观落阴仪式在晚上10时左右开始，郭法师首先解答参与者疑问，包括是否能拿回地府的“东西”，是否可跟亲人对话等。
随后，所有参与者都蒙上裹着“落阴符”的黄色及黑色的布条，全场灯光随着熄灭，法师唱念咒语及演奏法器，并燃烧金银纸让烟雾包围现场，在一片阴森森的气氛中，伴随着不间断、规律缓慢平和且引人入睡的法器敲击声，带领着探险队前往地府。
在过程中，有些参与者四肢及头部不断甩动颤抖，有些人则一副平静老神在在，突然间有人出声呼叫“师父！师父”，原来已有人走在了通往地府的路上，师父马上指引该名参与者“方向”，让他得以去到“想去的地方”。
随着，陆续有更多人看到了“灯光”，师父指引看到灯光的参与者跟着灯光前进，同时询问参与者所看到的景象。有些人表示看到房子、有些人看到悬崖、甚至有人看到购物广场。约一个小时后，师父指引所有参与者“回来”人间并亮起灯，地府之旅就此结束。
由于成功进入地府的参与者不多，师父承诺未成功进入地府的参与者，日后可前往观音慈悲堂，他将再次带领参与者尝试闯地府。
是否回去了古代？ 谭博营似乎在发梦
本报记者谭博营似乎也回去了古代，但他不确定自己是否已进入地府，还是作法时太睏而睡着发梦？
谭博营声称，他在仪式过程中有段时间睡着了，他梦到自己回到了古代，看到一对古装男女在喝茶，其中还穿插着现代画面，整个画面呈现灰暗色彩。谭博营无法肯定自己是否在发梦，还是下到了地府，但他在完成整个仪式后感觉非常疲累。
《中国报》摄记蒋琪川 感应到吃长素讯息
共有10名记者也参与游地府之旅，惟只有一名摄影记者成功进入地府，他声称感应到有似观音菩萨的影子，传达他“吃长素，勿吃鱼肉”的讯息。
记者们兴致勃勃地想到地府一探究竟，惟坐在同一排的记者却无人能成功闯入地府，反而是坐在后一排的《中国报》摄记蒋琪川有幸进入地府。据蒋琪川声称，他先看到了七彩灯光，随后灯光处出现了一个疑似观音菩萨的影子，并指点他吃长素，勿吃鱼肉。
据了解，蒋琪川长只吃海鲜类，并不吃其他肉类。他继说，所看到的影子很模糊，只是感觉有点像观音菩萨，至于“吃长素，勿吃鱼肉”的讯息，并不是对话听到的讯息，而是感应到的讯息。
以为等齐人才进入 郑淑娥失良机
郑淑娥（27岁，来自居銮）声称，在法事进行后不久，她即“飘到”地府大门，眼前清楚看到一个年轻和尚，不断邀请她进入大门，当时她以为须等大家到齐后才进入，所以就站着等，岂知等不到其他人，她欲进入时郭法师已召唤她回去，因此错过游地府良机。
她补充，地府大门时开时关，“现场”则出现白色光芒，而她全程都在“飘动”，双脚未着地。她在法事进行时，全程在晃动，令在场观看的民众相信她已“下地府”；惟事后询及她当时是否有知觉时，她则表示没有，她甚至反问，“我真的在晃动吗？”
她这趟与丈夫结伴从居銮前来纯粹为“体验”观落阴，然而丈夫自认胆小所以没参与。
未见到亡母 黄文昌失望
来自吉隆坡的黄文昌（55岁）则说，参与“观落阴”的目的是要见亡母一面，因他20岁即丧母，非常想念母亲。
然而，他声称，落到地府时先是来到空旷的空间，却未见亡母令他感到失望，反而一个很丑陋的“鬼头”突然在他眼前出现。诡异的是，当他指向“鬼头”时，“鬼头”突然变成几千人，再后来却变成佛陀的头像。由于他这次未能见到亡母，他将寻求第二度“下地府”。
陈国兴“飘到”地府 回到“现实”很疲累
来自槟城的陈国兴（58岁）声称，他成功“飘到”地府，他是在最后阶段看到光线后，紧跟才看到1名身穿古装服饰的长发老人，他则跟随老人一起飘，正“飘”得过瘾时，谁知法师一呼唤，他也被逼回到阳间。他说，那一刻回到“现实”时，全身感到很疲累。
安洁丽娜“灵魂出窍” 感觉画面很模糊
来自印尼棉兰的美少妇安洁丽娜（26岁）向本报表示，她只是在大马度假，随后从朋友口中知道“观落阴”在槟城举行，抱着好奇及想见见亡父的心情报名参加。
安洁丽娜指出，她所看到的画面都很模糊，隐隐约约看到一堆人走动，似乎非常热闹，但她并没听到任何声音。安洁丽娜也感觉到“灵魂出窍”的感觉，她感觉到自己的灵魂脱离身体，飘到地府去。她表示，虽然去到了地府，却没有看到父亲，感觉有点遗憾。
三毛生前沉迷“观落阴” 阴间是个乌托邦世界
据资料显示，台湾著名作家三毛生前常参加“观落阴”活动，并曾向媒体表示阴间是个乌托邦的理想世界，她甚至说住在阴间比阳间好，她见到了死去的丈夫荷西、干爸徐吁。
传闻她生前沉迷“观落阴”，常常到冥界去探望亡夫，当时的传媒亦曾争相报道。三毛也自称她看到所谓的生死簿，上头预测她一生只出了23本书，在三毛自杀身亡那一年，她的著作真的是刚好23本！
因此，在三毛自杀后，有人推测她最终选择自杀结束声明也因经常参与“观落阴”，最终沉迷于阴间的“生活”而选择自杀走向死亡。
林展鹏：要消灾解难 启发善念及日行一善
若要消灾解难，就得启发善念，并日行一善！
针对“观落阴”或“还阴库”是否可以消灾解难，槟州佛教总会副总务林展鹏受询时指出，信则有，不信则无，然而他强调，佛教并不相信这些，若依佛教观点而论，这其实是种迷信。他说，要“下地府”也并非简单之事，若有人声称成功“下去”，并能够娓娓叙述其过程，他认为这纯属“巧合”。
“所谓‘日有所思，夜有所梦’，出现在眼前的画面，也可能是想象出来的。”
他继说，两项法事出自道教，并非佛教所遵循，若要消灾解难，他认为须多行善，并在生活中口说好话、心想好意，如此一来，才能远离做坏事造孽。
跨过“阴阳界大门” “还阴库”消除业障
人要“还阴库”，才能消除业障！
郭勇城妙慧上师声称，“还阴库”主要是向“阴间债主”清还债务，并借此清除一生中的业障。他说，人在往生前，都会“拖欠”阴间债，而烧给阴间的“库钱”，除了要还给“冤亲债主”外，也要还给阴库，这样才能改运。
他指出，“还阴库” 能够流传至今，历久不衰，必有其道理，而当天所烧的“库钱”全进口至台湾，原因是本地并不流行“还阴库”。据记者所见，“库钱”包装成一包包长方型并堆积在台面上，而每包库钱上则列明当事者姓名及生辰八字，同时清楚注明“还阴库习库官及冤亲债主库钱”。
“还阴库”仪式进行时，郭法师口中念念有词，并率领大家跨过“阴阳界大门”还债去。接着信众也随着法师来到临时火炉，而工作人员也将大家的“库钱”移动到该处焚烧。
还阴库又名还寿生
还阴库又名还寿生，根据《寿生经》一说，人生旅途总有因果孽债，每个人转世之前都要到地府曹官那里去借钱，培植自己的福慧资粮。因此出生后才有粮食可以吃、好运连连等等福报，因此人生需要还的第一个阴债就是寿生债。希望早还阴债，消灾解厄，事事顺利。如果仕途不顺，办事不力，生活坎坷，多费口舌，等等人生不如意事情出现时，当立即偿还寿生债。
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