Monday, October 31, 2011

Stocks to watch 20111031: Tenaga, Envair, SILK, MFM

KUALA LUMPUR: TENAGA NASIONAL BHD [] could be in focus on Monday, Oct 31 after it announced fourth quarter net loss of RM453.90 million, the second consecutive quarter of losses, last Friday, and expected the current financial year to be very challenging.

At the operating level, the power company reported operating losses of RM248.80 million due to higher fuel costs of coal and utilisation of oil and distillates after the gas curtailment by Petroliam Nasional Bhd.

Though investors anticipated Tenaga to reported losses, their concerns were whether it could work out the gas supply issue and a definite compensation from Petronas.

However, the lack of assurance from Petronas could weigh on the share price, especially after Tenaga president and chief executive officer Datuk Seri Che Khalib Mohamad Noh said on Friday no decision had been reached as yet.

OSK Research said barring a write-back of compensation from Petronas due to its failure to supply sufficient gas to Tenaga, the power company should still post losses over the next two quarters.

“A continued gas shortage coupled with outages in coal plants during 4QFY11 should have necessitated Tenaga to continue to generate substantial power from expensive oil and distillates. In addition, the weakening ringgit would give rise to translation losses,” it said.

OSK Research cautioned that Tenaga might be hopeful for compensation from Petronas amounting to 33% to 67% of its additional fuel bill.

“Investors may also hold out hopes of Tenaga securing a fuel cost pass through after the anticipated General Elections, which may be held soon. In any case, we still believe it would be risky to invest in Tenaga beyond current levels given such speculation,” it added.

However, the broader market could extend their gains, underpinned by the recent strong performance on Wall Street where stocks closed out a fourth week of gains in quiet fashion on Friday, edging higher as the market took a breather after rallying 3% on Europe's deal to stem its debt crisis.

Reuters reported though investors still have questions about implementing the deal, they appeared satisfied by Europe's progress as stocks ended their longest weekly winning streak of the year.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 22.56 points, or 0.18%, to 12,231.11. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 0.49 point, or 0.04%, to 1,285.08. The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 1.48 points, or 0.05 percent, to 2,737.15.

As for the FBM KLCI, it is up 114.3 points from Oct 3’s 1,367.52 to end 1,481.82 last Friday. For last week, the KLCI was up 30.9 pts or 2.19%.

Affin Investment Bank head of retail research Dr Nazri Khan believes the KLCI is likely to trend higher next week on stronger global risk appetite following twin Europe-US catalysts last week.

The factors were the long awaited plan to resolve the European debt crisis and the stronger than expected US 3rd quarter economic growth (registering the fastest quarterly GDP in a year).

“Going forward next week, we expect investors to price in stronger US/European economy as well as the reduced banking crisis risk in both continents, pushing KLCI to a possible 1,524 level (which is the KLCI high made in 2008 before the subprime crisis),” said Nazri.

Other stocks to watch are Envair Holdings Bhd, SILK Holdings Bhd and MALAYAN FLOUR MILLS BHD [] (MFM). Also in focus could be TASEK CORPORATION BHD [] and Cycle & Carriage Bhd.

Envair has received a letter of intent from Zai Corporate Finance Ltd (ZAICF), an investment banking firm based in London, to subscribe for up to 30% of its new ordinary shares of 10 sen each at the market issue price.

The ACE Market listed company said the board would deliberate on this matter and announce its decision on the private placement.

SILK chairman Datuk Mohd Azlan Hashim has said he was confident the company would be able to return to profitability in a couple of years as traffic volume picks up for its tolled highway operations and an improvement in the marine support services.

"We expect with the continued increase in traffic flow in that area, these losses will eventually be wiped out and there will be a turnaround in profitability," he said.

Malayan Flour Mills could be getting ready for the next stage of growth, having announced a series of corporate exercises in May and signing an agreement in October that would see it step into the Indonesian market, according to The Edge weekly.

Tasek's earnings fell 32.9% to RM22.10 million in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2011 (3QFY11) from RM32.90 million a year ago, due to lower sales. Its revenue fell 7.5% to RM132.99 million from RM143.78 million. Earnings per share were 17.82 sen compared with 20.63 sen.

Cycle & Carriage Bhd’s earnings for third quarter ended Sept 30, 2011 fell 38.37% to RM5.93 million from RM9.62 million a year ago, due to lower margins and reduced non-recurring income. Revenue rose 20.6% to RM188.21 million from RM156.03 million. EPS were 5.89 sen compared to 9.55 sen the previous year.

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