Sunday, July 31, 2011

U.S. Stocks Slump as S&P 500 Posts Biggest Drop Since July 2010

U.S. stocks fell five straight days, driving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its biggest weekly loss in a year, as lawmakers’ failure to agree on raising the federal government’s debt limit brought the nation to the brink of default.

All 10 groups in the S&P 500 tumbled at least 2.1 percent. United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS), the largest package-delivery company, dropped 6.7 percent after saying the third quarter will be “fairly slow.” 3M Co. (MMM) lost 8.6 percent, the most in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, after missing forecasts for profit margins and sales. Sprint Nextel Corp. (S) plunged 18 percent as the wireless-network operator trailed estimates.

The S&P 500 declined 3.9 percent to 1,292.28, the biggest weekly drop since the period ended July 2, 2010. The Dow retreated 537.92 points, or 4.2 percent, to 12,143.24. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against S&P 500 losses, soared 44 percent, the most since May 2010, to 25.25.

“Markets don’t like uncertainty, and that’s been the key word,” John Canally, who helps oversee $330.1 billion as an investment strategist at LPL Financial Corp., said in a telephone interview from Boston. “The market’s comfortable with the idea that there’s no default, but what the market doesn’t know is the path to getting there.”

Debate, Earnings
The S&P 500 posted a third straight monthly loss, the longest streak since 2008, amid speculation Republicans in the U.S. House would fail to reach a compromise with the Senate, controlled by Democrats, and President Barack Obama to boost the nation’s ability to borrow by an Aug. 2 deadline. That concern helped overshadow a second-quarter earnings reporting season in which 78 percent of S&P 500 companies have exceeded analysts’ income projections.

Treasuries rallied yesterday, driving 10- and 30-year yields to the lowest levels this year, on speculation lawmakers will break the deadlock and avoid defaulting on the nation’s $9.34 trillion of marketable debt outstanding.

After markets closed yesterday, the Republican-controlled House passed Speaker John Boehner’s plan to cut spending and raise the debt limit. Within hours, the Senate rejected it as Democrats pressed for passage of their own alternative.

“This whole debacle is leading to lower growth, higher unemployment and more erosion of the U.S. in the standing of the global economy,” Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Mohamed El-Erian said during a July 27 radio interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene. El-Erian is chief executive and co-chief investment officer at Pimco, the world’s biggest manager of bond funds, in Newport Beach, California.

Missing Forecasts
Stocks also fell this week after government reports showed orders for durable goods unexpectedly decreased and the U.S. economy grew less than forecast in the second quarter.

The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index of stocks most-tied to economic growth decreased 5.6 percent, the most in a week since July 2010. The Dow Jones Transportation Average had the biggest loss since August, falling 4.5 percent.

UPS slumped 6.7 percent to $69.22. The company, considered a bellwether of the economy, said that Asian growth outside of China was slower than expected and the U.S. will continue to be “extremely sluggish.” Second-quarter net income rose 26 percent in an “uneven economic environment,” UPS said.

3M had the biggest decline since December 2008, falling 8.6 percent to $87.14. The company projected full-year earnings that trailed analysts’ estimates after lower demand for LCD televisions curbed sales in its display and graphics business, its third-biggest unit.

Losing Customers
Sprint sank 18 percent to $4.23. The carrier lost 101,000 customers on monthly contracts after dropping 114,000 in the previous three-month period. That started a new losing streak following a fourth-quarter gain in the lucrative users that was the first increase in more than four years.

S&P placed the U.S. AAA rating on “CreditWatch” on July 14, saying there’s a 50 percent chance it would be cut within 90 days even if an agreement is reached by the Aug. 2 deadline. S&P said it needs to see a “credible solution to the rising U.S. government debt burden.”

“My definition of AAA has always been a credit so good that we don’t bother talking about it,” Michael Shaoul, who oversees $1 billion as chairman of New York-based Marketfield Asset Management LLC, said in a telephone interview. “Once you’re talking about it, it’s not really AAA anymore.”

He added: “Even if the U.S. is downgraded, I don’t think it would have any major effect on anything right now.”

REITs Plunge
Real estate investment trusts that buy mortgage debt tumbled yesterday, adding to their biggest weekly loss in more than a year, on concern the markets that finance them will be roiled if the U.S. government defaults on its debt.

A Bloomberg index of shares of 32 mortgage REITs, such as Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) and Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR), dropped up to 8.5 percent yesterday, the most since May 6, 2010. For the week, the measure slumped 6.5 percent.

Quarterly reports scheduled for next week include Pfizer Inc., the biggest drugmaker; MasterCard Inc., the second-largest bank-card network; and Archer Daniels Midland Co., the world’s largest grain processor. Time Warner Inc., owner of the Warner Bros. studios, and CVS Caremark Corp., the largest U.S. provider of prescription drugs, are also due.

















假如你细读年报中的“产业名单”(List of Properties)的话,你会发现,许多地皮是在一、二十年前买进的,买价低得离谱,十多二十年来,地价已不知翻了多少番,目前的价格,肯定比“账面价值”高数倍,甚至数十倍。








这些在十多二十年前买进的地皮,价值已不知涨了多少倍,但在公司的账目中,十多二十年来,每年仍保持买进时的价值,这个价值,称为“账面价值”(Book Value),以区别于“重估价值”。










最近美合实业(Merge Housing)和侨丰产业(OSK Properties)的大股东分别以每股65仙和87仙全面献购小股东的股票,假如你阅读两公司的财报的话,你会发现,美合和侨丰的每股净有形资产价值分别为1令吉11仙和1令吉74仙,比献购价几乎高一倍,不要忘记这还是“账面价值”。











Stocks to watch 20110801 : Jotech, AIC, AutoV, Chin Teck

Written by Surin Murugiah of
Saturday, 30 July 2011 14:38

KUALA LUMPUR: The local stock market is expected to remain on tenterhooks in the week beginning Monday, Aug 1 on emerging worries of a potential double-dip global recession.

With just days before the US runs out of cash to pay all of its bills, a deadlock in reaching a consensus on the world’s largest economy’s debt ceiling has just about rattled most global markets.

Furthermore, rating agency Moody's put Spain on review for a possible downgrade on Friday, adding to concerns that a Greek rescue package has done little to halt the spread of Europe's debt crisis.

Given the slew of negative newsflow, trading at the local stock market could remain sluggish and the FBM KLCI could well extend its losses after dropping more than 30 points in July.

Meanhile, stocks that could be in focus on Monday are JOTECH HOLDINGS BHD [], AIC CORPORATION BHD [] and AutoV Corporation Bhd, Chin Teck PLANTATION []s and TASEK CORPORATION BHD [].

Jotech, AIC Corp and AutoV resume trade following Temasek Formation Sdn Bhd (TFSB), a special purpose company, proposing to acquire their entire interests including assets and liabilities for a total of RM696 million.

TFSB, which is owned by Jotech executive chairman Datuk Goh Tian Chuan, will then merge the companies to create a larger entity.

Under the exercise, the company is offering 18 sen for each Jotech share, RM1.80 for each AIC share and RM2.38 per AutoV share.

Based on the above, the proposed swap ratios are three new TFSB shares for every two existing Jotech shares; 15 new TFSB shares for every 1 existing AIC share and 119 new TFSB shares for every six AutoV shares.

Goh last Friday said the merger would create a larger manufacturing group with diverse customer portfolios in a wide range of industries comprising medical and life sciences, automotive industry, the electrical and electronics industry (including the semiconductor industry).

Chin Teck declared a second gross interim dividend 30 sen per share in respect of the financial year ending Aug 31, to be paid on Aug 26.

Its net profit for the third quarter ended May 31, 2011 surged to RM24.18 million from RM10.89 million a year ago. Revenue for the quarter increased to RM45.04 million from RM29.62 million in 2010.

Tasek could see continued interest after it declared a gross interim dividend of 20 sen per share for FY ending Dec 31, 2011 after its net profit for the second quarter ended June 30, 2011 rose to RM24.21 million from RM23.11 million a year earlier.

Friday, July 29, 2011

U.S. Stock Futures Sink, Treasuries Rally on GDP

U.S. stock-index futures extended losses and Treasuries rallied after gross domestic product grew less than estimated in the second quarter, adding to concern the economic rebound is slowing as the federal government inches closer to default. Gold gained.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in September tumbled 0.9 percent to 1,285.2 at 8:45 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures sank 120 points, or 1 percent, to 12,073. Ten-year Treasury yields slid seven basis points to 2.88 percent, while gold futures climbed 0.5 percent to $1,625.00 an ounce.

"It’s coming from all sides today," Richard Sichel, who oversees $1.6 billion as chief investment officer at Philadelphia Trust Co., said in telephone interview. “The economy is not moving along at a robust pace, the consumer is not spending and overshadowing all of this is the uncertainty in Washington,” he said. "We need more confidence for people to buy risky assets such as stocks."

Gross domestic product rose at a 1.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter following a 0.4 percent gain in the prior quarter that was less than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 1.8 percent increase. Household purchases, about 70 percent of the economy, climbed 0.1 percent.

Weekly Slide
The S&P 500 has tumbled 3.3 percent this week, the largest weekly retreat in almost a year, as concern mounted that lawmakers will fail to agree to increase the U.S. debt ceiling by the Treasury Department’s Aug. 2 deadline. House Speaker John Boehner fell short of the votes within his own party needed to increase the borrowing limit after a night of one-on-one appeals to members. President Barack Obama had threatened to veto the House’s plan.

Senate Democrats plan to break the impasse by devising a strict enforcement mechanism to guarantee future deficit savings, according to Democratic officials. The talks center on setting up automatic spending cuts or tax increases, or some combination of the two, if the government fails to stay within the debt limit.

The standoff in Washington has overshadowed the second- quarter earnings season. Per-share profit has topped analysts’ estimates at about 77 percent of the 299 companies in the S&P 500 that have released results since July 11, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Net income has grown 17 percent and sales have increased 13 percent for the group, the data show.

Stocks to watch 20110728 : Gadang, WCT, Unisem, Tasek, MAHB, Genting

Written by Surin Murugiah of
Thursday, 28 July 2011 21:03

KUALA LUMPUR: Indications of an anticipated slower economic expansion in Europe in the second half of this year, and the looming debt crisis in the US could weigh on regional markets on the final trading day of July.

The European Commission's monthly sentiment index, based on a survey of businessmen and consumers across the 17-nation euro zone, fell to 103.2 in July from 105.4 in June. This month's figure was the lowest reading since 102.2 in August 2010.

European markets opened sharply lower on Thursday on news of the data as well as on weaker corporate earnings.

However, there could be some respite at the US markets as initial jobless claims in the United States dropped a very sharp 24,000 in the July 23 week to 398,000 for the first sub-400,000 reading since early April.

But overall, market observers have cautioned the sentiment could remain tepid at regional markets until the US debt ceiling issue is resolved.

Among the stocks that could be in focus today on Bursa Malaysia are GADANG HOLDINGS BHD [], WCT BHD [], UNISEM (M) BHD [], TASEK CORPORATION BHD [], Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd, GENTING BHD [] and Tasek Corporation Bhd.

Gadang cautioned that it sees a more challenging year moving forward, with the tendering process getting more competitive with lower operating margins, after it slipped into the red for the financial year ended May 31, 2011.

Gadang posted net loss RM4.25 million compared to net profit RM14.87 million in 2010, despite revenue increasing to RM348.32 million from RM270.45 million.

WCT secured a RM115.09 million contract from Vale Malaysia Manufacturing Sdn Bhd (VMM) for earthwork services in Teluk Rubiah, Perak.

It said on Thursday, July 28 that its unit WCT CONSTRUCTION [] Sdn Bhd had been awarded the project comprising earthwork, drainage, roads and pavement, slope protection works and temporary sedimentation ponds at VMM's Project - Phase 1A (Stage 1), Teluk Rubiah,

Unisem net profit for the second quarter ended June 30l, 2011 fell 75% to RM12.03 million from RM48.05 million a year earlier due mainly to a decline in revenue.

It said on Thursday, July 28 that its revenue fell 14.5% to RM307.52 million from RM359.50 million in 2010.

Tasek declared a gross interim dividend of 20 sen per share in respect of the financial year ending Dec 31, 2011 after its net profit for the second quarter ended June 30, 2011 rose to RM24.21 million from RM23.11 million a year earlier.

MAHB net profit for the second quarter ended June 30, 2011 jumped 37.4% to RM81.92 million from RM59.62 million a year earlier due mainly to a positive growth in revenue.

It said on Thursday, July 28 that its revenue for the quarter rose to RM654.23 million from RM525.01 million in 2010.

Meanwhile, RAM Ratings reaffirmed the respective long- and short-term corporate credit ratings of Genting at AAA and P1.

It has also concurrently reaffirmed the enhanced long-term AAA(s) rating of GB Services Bhd’s (GB Services) RM1.6 billion Medium-Term Notes Programme (2009/2024).

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Nasi Lemak 2.0 辣死你媽!!!


(吉隆坡26日讯)电影《Nasi Lemak 2.0 辣死你妈!》即将于9月8日上映;日前在记者会上,黄明志澄清电影名称中的“2.0”并非效仿“净选盟 2.0”,并直呼“我两年前就已经有这个idea,不知道是谁在抄我。”

黄明志在媒体与娱乐公司UB葡萄子娱乐机构的协助下,一共花了2年时间制作的《Nasi Lemak 2.0辣死你妈》即将于9月8日在全马60家院线上映。原本要申请国家电影发展局(FINAS)基金拍摄电影的他,最终被问是否成功时,他就笑言“虽然经济上没有资助,不过还好政府通过我的电影,让我有机会完成这部电影。”


电影中邀来了多位“重量级”演员演出,其中就包括有马来综艺天后Adibah Noor、综艺天王Afdlin Shauki、性感女神Nur Fathia、龚柯允、印度创作才子Reshmonu、张少林等人。



电影上映前 将巡回12城市宣传


■ “我电影的名称早在两年前已通过,所以“2.0”这个idea,不知是谁在抄我。”~~黄明志

■ 出席记者会的演员包括(左起)发财宝、Dian Sharlin、张少林、执行制片人张捷惟、Reshmonu、黄明志、刘凯彦、Nur Fathia,以及叶静仪等。

■ 电影《Nasi Lemak 2.0 辣死你妈!》即将于9月8日上映。

European Stocks Slide; Credit Suisse Drops

European stocks declined for a fourth day as U.S. lawmakers moved no closer to a deal to avert a default and as companies from Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) to BASF SE (BAS) reported profit that missed analysts’ estimates. Asian stocks fell and U.S. index futures gained.

Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second-biggest bank, and BASF, the world’s largest chemical maker, both retreated more than 1 percent. Volkswagen AG (VOW) sank 3.3 percent as it posted first-half earnings that missed analysts’ estimates. Technip SA (TEC), Europe’s second-largest oilfield-services provider, climbed 2.9 percent after increasing its 2011 operating margin estimate.

The Stoxx 600 slid 0.7 percent to 265.29 at 10:19 a.m. in London. The index has fallen 8.9 percent from this year’s high on Feb. 17 as investors speculated that Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis will derail the economic recovery and as concern mounted that U.S. lawmakers will fail to agree on the federal government’s debt ceiling by next week’s deadline.

“What’s really weighing on the market is the problem of the U.S. debt ceiling,” said Jerome Forneris, who helps manage $11 billion at Banque Martin Maurel in Marseille. “We only have 4 1/2 days left. If the U.S. defaults, it’s bad for the whole world. They have to resolve this problem. Investors are pulling money out of stocks and buying gold. People are worried about the uncertainty and are looking for safe havens.”

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in September advanced 0.3 percent today, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index decreased 0.9 percent.

Sovereign Credit Rating
The House of Representatives planned to vote today on a Republican proposal to increase the debt limit. House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio gained support among fellow Republicans after reworking the legislation to cut $917 billion over 10 years, more than he originally planned. All 51 Senate Democrats and two independents signed a letter yesterday pledging to oppose the measure.

Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings have said they may cut the U.S.’s top-level sovereign rating if officials fail to resolve the stalemate on the $14.3 trillion borrowing ceiling before the Treasury Department’s deadline on Aug. 2.

The S&P 500 sank 2 percent yesterday, its biggest drop in almost two months, and the cost of insuring against a U.S. default climbed to the highest level since February 2010.

A report at 10 a.m. in Washington will show that the number of contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes fell in June for the second time in three months, a sign the housing market is struggling to regain its footing two years into the expansion, economists predicted.

Earnings Miss Estimates
Of the 135 Stoxx 600 companies that have reported quarterly earnings since July 11, 50 percent have missed analysts’ estimates for profit per share and 41 percent have beaten predictions.

The VStoxx Index, a measure of the cost of insuring against losses in the Euro Stoxx 50 Index, advanced 4.2 percent, extending yesterday’s 8.3 percent gain.

Credit Suisse dropped 1.3 percent to 28.88 Swiss francs. The lender said it plans to cut about 2,000 jobs after second- quarter profit fell 52 percent to 768 million francs ($959 million) on lower earnings from trading. That missed the 1.06 billion-franc average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Chemical makers fell the most among the 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600, losing 2.2 percent, as BASF and Kemira Oyj (KRA1V) retreated.

BASF plunged 5.2 percent to 62.45 euros for its biggest drop in more than four months. The chemical company reported second-quarter profit that fell short of analysts’ estimates, held back by a weaker U.S. dollar and shrinking margins. Earnings before interest, taxes and one-off items were little changed at 2.24 billion euros ($3.2 billion).

Kemira, SBM Offshore
Kemira sank 9.4 percent to 10.82 euros. The Finnish maker of water-treatment chemicals reported second-quarter net income of 30.7 million euros, missing the 34.3 million-euro mean estimate of six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Volkswagen AG slipped 3.3 percent to 139.35 euros as Europe’s largest carmaker posted first half Ebit of 6.09 billion euros. That fell short of the 6.17 billion-euro average estimate of 14 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Technip gained 2.9 percent to 75.94 euros. The company said second-quarter net income rose to 132.5 million euros from 106.1 million euros a year earlier. That beat the average analyst estimate of 108.6 million euros. The company lifted its full- year estimates.

Lafarge, Siemens Slip
Construction and industrial stocks decreased, led by Lafarge SA (LG), which dropped 2.9 percent to 38.53 euros. The world’s biggest cement maker said second-quarter operating profit declined to 702 million euros from 838 million euros a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had estimated operating profit of 741 million euros.

Siemens decreased 1.5 percent to 89.78 euros. Europe’s largest engineering company said profit in its fiscal third quarter fell 47 percent to 763 million euros because of a fine tied to a nuclear-energy joint venture and charges at its health-care unit. The company reiterated that profit will exceed 7.5 billion euros for the year ending Sept. 30.

Air France-KLM (AF) Group slumped 7.4 percent to 8.69 euros. Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA) declined 3.1 percent to 14.03 euros. Europe’s biggest airlines posted earnings that missed analysts’ estimates as fuel costs soared and uprisings in north Africa clipped demand.

SBM Offshore NV (SBMO) tumbled 17 percent to 15.88 euros, its biggest slide in more than two years. The company said it will report a first-half net loss after booking a $450 million impairment charge.

Vallourec SA (VK) plunged 16 percent to 70.38 euros for its biggest retreat since 2008. The French producer of steel pipes for the oil and gas industry said that second-quarter profit declined from a year earlier as rising raw material costs cut the company’s margins.

Asian Stocks Decline on U.S. Debt, Falling Goods Orders; China Banks Slide

Asian stocks fell for a third day this week as U.S. lawmakers failed to break a deadlock over raising the federal debt limit, and durable goods orders in the world’s biggest economy unexpectedly declined.

Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), the No. 1 carmaker, slid 2.2 percent in Tokyo. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (8306), Japan’s biggest publicly traded lender, fell 1.5 percent. China Construction Bank Corp. led Chinese lenders lower after the government prohibited banks from renewing loans to local financing vehicles. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s largest mining company by market value, retreated 2.3 percent in Sydney after oil and metal prices declined. Nan Kang Rubber Tire Co. surged in Taipei after a newspaper said development of land by the company may reap sales of $3.5 billion.

“There’s increased nervousness in equity markets as the debt ceiling deadline draws near,” said Tim Schroeders, who helps manage $1 billion in global equities at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. “A de-rating of U.S. debt down the track could reduce monetary liquidity, and some bank earnings may be hurt. Exporter-led earnings are increasingly at risk under such a volatile backdrop.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 1 percent to 137.63 as of 7:38 p.m. in Tokyo. More than three stocks fell for each that rose on the gauge. The measure is headed for a decline this week as forecasts for higher earnings at companies from Canon Inc. to Baidu Inc. were overshadowed by concern the U.S. may default on its debt if lawmakers can’t reach an agreement on raising the government’s borrowing limit by Aug. 2

Regional Declines
Japan’s Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average fell 1.5 percent, sliding below the 10,000 yen level for the first time in a week and its biggest drop in over a month. South Korea’s Kospi index declined 0.9 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 1.6 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) climbed 0.1 percent, reversing an earlier drop of 1.4 percent, while the broader Hang Seng Composite Index slipped 0.1 percent. China’s Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.5 percent.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed after rising as much as 0.6 percent today. The index sank 2 percent yesterday in New York as lawmakers indicated they were no closer to reaching a compromise on the federal debt limit, while a government report showed orders for durable goods unexpectedly decreased.

The S&P 500’s biggest decline since June 1 came as House Speaker John Boehner’s reworked deficit-cutting plan gained support among Republicans, while Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said his competing proposal to avert a potential U.S. default is the only “true compromise.”

Stocks extended declines after the U.S. Commerce Department yesterday said bookings for goods meant to last at least three years fell 2.1 percent in June after a 1.9 percent gain in May that was smaller than last reported. The median forecast of 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a 0.3 percent increase. Demand for business equipment, including machinery and computers, also dropped.

Partial Greek Default
Declines also followed Standard & Poor’s saying that Greece will partially default on its debt once European officials push through a plan that will see bondholders foot part of the bill of a second bailout agreed to last week in Brussels. The rating company also cut its ranking for Greece to CC, two steps above default, from CCC.

A measure of consumer discretionary stocks including exporters such as Toyota and Honda Motor Co. in the Asia-Pacific gauge dropped 1 percent today.

Toyota, which counts North America as its biggest market for sales, slid 2.2 percent to 3,185 yen. Honda, the automaker which receives 83 percent of its revenue abroad, declined 1.9 percent to 3,085 yen in Tokyo. Samsung Electronics Co., a South Korean consumer and industrial electronics maker that gets about 85 percent of its revenue abroad, lost 1 percent to 837,000 won in Seoul. The companies were among the biggest drags on the MSCI Asia Pacific index.

‘Risk Avoidance’
“In addition to the recent debt impasse in the U.S., investors need to be more conscious about the deterioration of the actual economy,” said Mitsushige Akino, who oversees about $600 million in Tokyo at Ichiyoshi Investment Management Co. “Risk avoidance is increasing again.”

The U.S. government may lose its AAA credit rating even if lawmakers reach a plan to avoid a default, Mohamed A. El-Erian, whose Pacific Investment Management Co. is the world’s largest manager of bond funds, said in an e-mail to Bloomberg News on July 24. BlackRock Inc., Franklin Templeton Investments, Loomis Sayles & Co. and Western Asset Management have also said that the nation faces the loss of its top-level grade.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, the largest-listed Japanese holder of U.S. government debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, fell 1.5 percent to 397 yen. Westpac Banking Corp., Australia’s second-largest lender by market value, slumped 1.8 percent to A$20.65. Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., Australia’s No. 3, lost 1.4 percent to A$20.99.

A Heavy Drag
Banks as a group were the heaviest drags on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index among its 10 industry groups.

Chinese banks fell after commercial lenders were banned from rolling over or renewing their loans to local-government financing vehicles, according to a statement posted on the China Banking Regulatory Commission’s website today.

China Construction Bank slid 0.9 percent to HK$6.30 in Hong Kong. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (601988) slumped 0.5 percent to HK$5.96. Bank of China Ltd. declined 0.7 percent to 3.03 yuan in Shanghai.

Raw-material and energy producers dropped the most among the 10 industry groups on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index after crude oil dropped for a second day in New York, while the London Metal Exchange Index of prices for six metals including copper and aluminum slid 0.2 percent yesterday.

Copper, Oil Falls
BHP retreated 2.3 percent to A$42.03, the biggest single drag on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. Woodside Petroleum Ltd., Australia’s second-biggest oil and gas producer, slumped 1.6 percent to A$38.92. Inpex Corp., a Japanese energy exploration company, declined 2 percent to 590,000 yen.

Crude oil for September delivery slid as much as 0.6 percent to $96.80 a barrel today, its second day of declines. Copper in London dropped as much as 0.3 percent to $9,750 a metric ton, also falling for a second day.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.9 percent this year through yesterday, compared with a gain of 3.8 percent by the S&P 500 and a drop of 3.2 percent by the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. Stocks in the Asian benchmark are valued at 13.7 times estimated earnings on average, compared with 13.1 times for the S&P 500 and 10.9 times for the Stoxx 600.

Among stocks that advanced, Nan Kang Rubber jumped 6.9 percent to NT$58.70 in Taipei, the biggest gain on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. The Commercial Times newspaper reported the company’s plans to develop land in the Nan Kang district may reap sales of more than NT$100 billion ($3.5 billion), citing the chairman of Jaysanlyn Group, the sales agent of Nan Kang Rubber.

Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., which makes as well as repairs machinery, jumped 3.8 percent to 1,745 yen. The company boosted its forecast for net income to 3.8 billion yen from 1.5 billion yen for the six months ending Sept. 30, citing higher sales of parts and cost reductions.

Of 143 companies in the Asia-Pacific gauge that have reported net income since July 11, 67 have exceeded analysts’ estimates while 57 have fallen short, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Overall, earnings have declined 17 percent, the data show.

U.S. Stocks Drop on Debt-Ceiling Concern, Decline in Durable Goods Orders

U.S. stocks fell, dragging the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down the most in almost two months, as lawmakers indicated they were no closer to reaching a compromise on the federal debt limit.

Technology and industrial stocks led declines among 10 S&P 500 groups. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and General Electric Co. (GE) decreased more than 2.4 percent after a government report showed orders for durable goods unexpectedly decreased. Corning Inc. (GLW) dropped 7.2 percent after reducing its forecast for glass demand amid lower television-sales projections. Inc. (AMZN) rallied 3.9 percent after its Kindle e-reader and digital-media services helped second-quarter results beat analysts’ estimates.

The S&P 500 slipped 2 percent, its biggest decline since June 1, to 1,304.89 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 198.75 points, or 1.6 percent, to 12,302.55. Treasury yields, which dropped yesterday on speculation lawmakers would reach an accord on the nation’s debt ceiling, rose today as the political stalemate continued.

“The macro events are clearly driving the market,” Sarah Hunt, portfolio manager at Alpine Mutual Funds in Purchase, New York, said in a telephone interview. Alpine oversees about $6.5 billion. “Beyond the fact that we have this political squabble, which never makes people feel better, you also have an underlying potential softening in the economic data.”

The S&P 500 has fallen 3 percent this week, its biggest three-day decline since June 3, as Republicans and Democrats sparred over separate plans to raise the federal debt limit and avoid a default by Aug. 2. S&P, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings have said they may downgrade the U.S.’s top AAA rating if lawmakers fail to resolve the stalemate. Stocks rallied 2.2 percent last week as corporate profits topped analysts’ estimates.

‘True Compromise’
Equities declined today as an agreement remained elusive. House Speaker John Boehner’s reworked deficit-cutting plan was gaining support among Republicans, while Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said his competing proposal to avert a potential U.S. default is the only “true compromise.”

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office said Reid’s plan would cut $2.2 trillion over 10 years, shy of its $2.7 trillion target. The savings also fall below the $2.4 trillion needed to meet Republican demands that a debt-limit extension be accompanied by an equal amount of savings. President Barack Obama is insisting on a debt-limit increase large enough to last through the 2012 elections.

CBO said Boehner’s plan would save just $850 billion rather than its advertised $3 trillion, forcing him to make revisions and round up backing among fiscal conservatives after Republican leaders postponed a vote scheduled for today.

Investor Concern
Rates on six-month Treasury bills due Aug. 4 climbed 10 basis points to 0.15 percent, the highest since February, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data, a signal investors are growing more concerned that lawmakers will fail to reach an agreement on the nation’s debt. The bills are the first government debt securities to mature after the deadline to increase the $14.3 trillion borrowing limit passes on Aug. 2.

Benchmark Treasury 10-year note yields increased two basis points to 2.98 percent.

Stock futures retreated earlier as the U.S. Commerce Department said bookings for goods meant to last at least three years fell 2.1 percent in June after a 1.9 percent gain the prior month that was smaller than last reported. The median forecast of 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a 0.3 percent increase.

Stocks lost further ground in the afternoon after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economy grew at a slower pace in more parts of the country since the beginning of June as shoppers restrained spending and factory production eased.

Beige Book

“Economic activity continued to grow,” the Fed said in its Beige Book survey released today in Washington. “However, the pace has moderated in many districts.” Growth slowed in eight of the Fed’s 12 regions, compared with four in the last survey, the central bank said.

The S&P 500 Industrials Index lost 2.7 percent, the second- most among 10 groups in the benchmark gauge for U.S. equities.

Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of construction and mining equipment, slipped 3.7 percent to $101.34. General Electric decreased 2.4 percent to $18.11.

Boeing Co. (BA) rose the most in the Dow, adding 0.7 percent to $70.63, as the airplane maker lifted its forecast for full-year earnings. Net income rose 20 percent to $941 million, or $1.25 a share, buoyed by higher commercial sales. The average estimate of 22 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was for 97 cents. Full-year profit will be $3.90 to $4.10 a share, Boeing said, a jump of 10 cents at each end of its previous range.

‘Tug of War’
“It’s a tug of war between the headline risk of the debt ceiling issue and earnings,” Matthew DiFilippo, who helps manage $1 billion as director of research at Stewart Capital Advisors LLC in Indiana, Pennsylvania, said in telephone interview. “The volatility may create buying opportunities because corporate earnings are coming in strong, and the market does appear to be cheap compared to the underlying earnings power.”

Since July 11, about 81 percent of S&P 500 companies that have released quarterly results beat estimates for earnings per share, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Technology companies lost 3 percent, the most among 10 groups in the S&P 500 today.

Corning slumped 7.2 percent to $16.04. The maker of glass for flat-panel televisions lowered its outlook for the global glass market and slashed its full-year sales forecast for its Gorilla Glass by 20 percent to $800 million.

Juniper, Cisco
Juniper Networks Inc. (JNPR) plunged 21 percent to $24.66. The second-largest maker of Internet networking equipment posted second-quarter profit excluding certain costs of 31 cents a share. Analysts on average projected profit of 33 cents a share, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), the largest maker of networking equipment, declined 3.7 percent to $15.69. gained 3.9 percent to $222.52. The world’s largest online retailer reported second-quarter net income of $191 million, or 41 cents a share, topping the 34-cent average analyst estimate. Net sales rose to $9.91 billion, compared with the average prediction for $9.38 billion.

Total System Services Inc. (TSS) had the biggest gain in the S&P 500, adding 5.3 percent to $19.13. The credit-card processor said it earned 28 cents a share from continuing operations in the second quarter. That’s 1 cent more than the average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Barclays Plc raised the stock’s rating to “overweight” from “equal weight.”

Delta, Dunkin’
Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) fell 5.1 percent to $7.61. The world’s second-largest airline plans further seating-capacity cuts after higher fuel and maintenance costs pulled second-quarter profit below analysts’ estimates.

Dunkin’ Brands Group Inc. surged 47 percent to $27.85 on the first day of trading. The operator of Dunkin’ Donuts coffee shops sold 22.3 million shares at $19 each in an initial public offering.

“It’s a very mixed market environment,” Michael C. Aronstein, who manages $1.1 billion as president of New York- based Marketfield Asset Management LLC, said in a telephone interview. “There are sectors, companies and countries that are doing really well, while there are others that are very distressed.”

Stocks to watch 20110727:Favelle Favco, LFIB, SCIB, Zecon, KNM

Written by Surin Murugiah of
Wednesday, 27 July 2011 21:59

KUALA LUMPUR: Key regional markets may take the cue from the US and European markets’ tepid sentiment and trade cautiously ahead of the weekend on Friday, July 28 as a confluence of factors including deadlock over raising the debt ceiling and a decline in durable goods orders in the US could kept investors on the sidelines.

Asian markets were mixed on Thursday, as while on the one hand 27 China’s industrial profits 28.7% in the first half from a year earlier to 2.4 trillion yuan (about US$373 billion), lifting sentiment at some of the markets, worries of the US debt woes dragged others.

Investor sentiment has been see-sawing this week as a Republican plan to cut the US deficit met stiff opposition, reducing the chances of a late compromise to avoid a crippling debt default.

Among the stocks to watch on Bursa Malaysia today are FAVELLE FAVCO BHD [], Sarawak Consolidated Industries Bhd (SCIB), LION FOREST INDUSTRIES BHD [] (LFIB), ZECON BHD [], KNM GROUP BHD []

Favelle Favco Bhd secured four separate contracts worth a combined RM79.3 million to supply offshore cranes, a tower crane and winches.

It said on Wednesday, July 27 that its subsidiaries Favelle Favco Cranes (M) Sdn Bhd, Favelle Favco Cranes Pty Ltd, Favelle Favco Cranes Pte Ltd and Favelle Favco Winches Pte Ltd had received the purchase orders or letters of intent from their clients.

SCIB said it was not aware of any any corporate developments or rumours concerning its business that caused of the unusual market activity (UMA) in the company’s shares on Wednesday, July 27.

It said this in response to Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd’s UMA query to the company earlier in the day after the stock hit limit-up in the morning trading session.

LFIB has proposed to acquire a parcel of land in Cambodia for RM11.77million as part of its plan to seek new opportunities to cultivate rubber, palm oil and other industrial crops in Southeast Asian countries.

It said on Wednesday, July 27 that its wholly owned unit Harta Impiana Sdn Bhd had identified a parcel of 9,995ha economic land concession in the Preah Vihear Province and was proposing to procure a minimum 70-year concession period from the Cambodian government to cultivate the land.

It said the land is for the purposes of cultivation and planting of oil palm and/or rubber trees.

Meanwhile, Zecon and KNM could see continued interest following the recent news of their JV for a multi-billion ringgit integrated petrochemical complex in Teluk Ramunia.

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

美持续债务谈判僵局 美媒称进入“灾难倒计时”






基本面佳潛在併購 非銀行金融機構股估值誘人















股項 評級 目標價 閉市價
(令吉) 波動

永旺信貸 維持買入 上修至7.30 4.91 -1

馬建屋 維持買入 維持2.40 1.44 +1

東太平 無評級 1.10 0.77 -

天盤測走勢. 貴族股買不起不要看









基不可失. 定期定額投資須堅持













 她形容,定投就像種樹一樣, 在市場下跌時,以更便宜價格買到更多樹苗種下去。







(令吉) 基金
(令吉) 獲得基金

第一期 1.50 150 100

第二期 1.00 150 150

第三期 0.50 150 300

合計 450 550




 接二連三耳聞、目睹市場呈現出來的“好景”,就連買個智能手機、高科技產品都得大排長龍,真實得讓“疑心病重” 的我有點質疑。













3A國家變多 主權債恐成下個泡沫



觀察家已經開始擔心主權債券泡沫。德意志銀行(Deustch Bank)信用策略分析師雷德就說,在週而復始的超級泡沫循環中,政府往往是最後一環。



奧巴馬警告: 債務飆升重傷經濟


奧巴馬從白宮在黃金時段發表演講說:「如果照我們目前的步調,債務持續增加,將會損及就業,嚴重傷害經濟。」他呼籲國會議員放下政治立場,以「均衡」方式達成協議,而且他把現在協商陷入僵局的責任歸咎於眾議院一群共和黨眾議員,他們堅持削減預算,不加稅。25日稍早,美國眾議院議長博納和參議院民主黨領袖里德(Harry Reid)各自公佈提案內容。

奧巴馬贊同瑞德的計劃,並表示 博納的措施只是「緩兵之計」。奧巴馬說,雙方必須進一步妥協。「民主黨、共和黨都同意我們所需削減的財政赤字,辯論只是關於該如何執行。」俄亥俄州共和黨籍眾議員博納回應奧巴馬電視演講說,奧巴馬要求一張「空白支票」。






































在投资领域当中,投资的本质可分为两种即牺牲当前消费(Reduced current consumption)和计划未来消费(Planned later consumption)。


这种生产能力是社会经济中的实物资产(Real Assets),而实物资产包括土地、建筑物、知识、用于生产产品的机械设备以及运用这些资源所必需的技术性工人。实物资产与“人力”资产包括了整个社会的产出和消费的内容。

与实物资产相对应的是金融资产(Financial Assets)。金融资产包括了固定收入与债务、普通股票或证券以及衍生证券。而固定收入与债务则可分为货币市场工具(银行定期存款证书)及资本市场工具(债券)。



金融资产在经济中的作用包括了几项重点:其一、讯息的角色(Information Role),如谷歌效应“Google Effect”;其二、消费的时间安排(Consumption Timing),即个人现实消费与现实收入分离,将高收入期的购买力转移到低收入期;其三、风险的分配(Allocation of Risk),风险源自实际资产,风险在全社会的分散和优化配置;其四、所有权与经营权分离(Separation of Ownership and Management),即复合所有权:变不可分割的资产为可分割资产,例如公司股东退出不影响公司运作。

企业管理及企业道德是非常重要的,如果缺乏这些的约束,企业将面对严重的问题,当中包括了会计史上著名的造假行为,如美国安然(Enron)、来德爱(RiteAid)以及康南(HealthSouth)公司的会计丑闻,以及安达信(Arthur Andersen)会计公司的分析师丑闻。


































年度 A 公司 B 公司

第一及第二年 40% 40%

第三及第四年 70% 70%

第五及第六年 100% 90%

第七以上年 100% 100%








年份 投资联结型保险 纯单位信托投资

(12%回酬) (12%回酬)

人寿/疾病保障100K 每年投资:

每年投资:5千令吉 5千令吉

1 1千862 5千600

2 3千872 1万1千872

3 7千866 1万8千870

4 1万2千204 2万6千764

5 1万7千436 3万5千576

6 2万3千123 4万5千445

7 3万零088 5万6千498

8 3万7千666 6万8千878

9 4万5千915 8万2千744

10 5万4千888 9万8千273



马股估值昂贵 外资喊退



















新股太多 分散资金


冯廷秀说:“马股市值庞大, 但国人的投资金额却没有那么多,所以选择增多,资金就会分散,反而造成资金不够集中的现象,一些公司会因此不受热捧而无人问津。”







1999年4月,美国房地产和小型公司投资人罗伯特.T.清崎和注册会计师、资深经理和咨询专家莎伦.L.莱希特两人合着了《富爸爸,穷爸爸》一书。这也首次提出了财商(Financial Intelligence Quotient,简写成FQ)概念,轰动了全美和世界。










现实生活 ,人和人之间没有多大的差别,为什么有的人富有,有的人贫穷?问题出在哪里?












美国《华尔街日报》专栏作家Jeff Opdyke指出,个人理财的技巧,在于重新认识你的理财角度和态度,只要善次运用个人“财商”,灵巧地掌握理财窍门,寻找到适合自己的方法,









罗凤琴 金融系硕士/ 合格财务规划师/ 认证财务规划师/ 益资利投资银行经纪

雄才大略:节流还不够 开源才稳当!













































●陈金阙 专业财务规划师

谈古纳今:只要结婚 不要负债●古纳西卡兰



沙布拉石油(SAPCRES,8575,主板贸服股)和肯油企业(Kencana,5122,主板贸服股)合并的建议,被标榜为另外一个“协作动力”(Synergy Drive),后者多年前的大合并,组成扩大后的森那美(SIME)。不过,两者之间有个重大的区别。







这个合并计划的机制,是一家2令吉的特殊用途公司——Integral Key私人有限公司,收购沙布拉石油以及肯油企业的所有资产与债务,收购价格分别是59亿令吉和60亿令吉。

对于沙布拉石油来说,股东将会收到25亿股Integral Key的新股,每股价值2令吉,以及总值8.75亿令吉的现金;对于肯油企业来说,股东将会收到25亿股Integral Key的新股,以及总值9.69亿令吉的现金。支付的现金总额为18.4亿令吉。


相同的,肯油企业的大股东,即总执行长拿督莫扎尼,他将透过投资臂膀Khasera Baru私人有限公司(持股32.4%),获得3.14亿令吉。

















根據野村股市研究,大馬市場風險溢價(Market risk premium)早在2008年3月大選前走高,308市場風險溢價估計自2007年12月上揚303點,導致馬股當時重挫29%,今年或在11月舉行的大選,市場風險溢價恐與308一樣節節上升,惟市場如何詮釋大選結果將是關鍵。
























更重要的是,該領域對政治不明朗敏感度更高,2008年3月大選前3個月,金務大(GAMUDA, 5398, 主板建筑組)、怡保工程(IJM, 3336, 主板建筑組)與WCT公司(WCT, 9679, 主板建筑組)落後富時綜指4至7%,選舉結果後3個月,落後高達7至20%。














European Stocks Decline for Third Day After Clariant, Merck Miss Estimates

European stocks fell for a third day as earnings from Clariant AG (CLN) to Merck KGaA (MRK) missed estimates and U.S. politicians wrangled over the nation’s debt limit. U.S. index futures and Asian shares were little changed.

Clariant, a Swiss chemical maker, plunged 13 percent. Merck, Germany’s second-biggest drugmaker, dropped 5.2 percent as it reported an unexpected loss. PSA Peugeot Citroen tumbled 8.3 percent after saying its automotive division may post a second-half loss. Banco Santander SA (SAN) led financial shares lower after Spain’s biggest bank said profit declined as Spanish loan provisions surged.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 0.5 percent to 268.74 at 11:35 a.m. in London. The gauge has retreated 7.7 percent from this year’s high in February amid concern that Europe’s fiscal crisis will derail the economic recovery and speculation that U.S. lawmakers will fail to agree on increasing the nation’s debt ceiling by next week’s deadline.

“The earnings season has revealed that weakness in the global economy remains,” Philippe Gijsels, the head of research at BNP Paribas Fortis Global Markets, said in a phone interview from Brussels. “There have been some misses in terms of guidance and this shows us we’re in a mid-cycle slowdown with companies being held hostage by economic conditions.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose less than 0.1 percent today, while futures contracts on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell less than 0.1 percent.

U.S. Rating

Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings have said they may cut the U.S.’s top-level sovereign rating if officials fail to resolve the stalemate on the $14.3 trillion borrowing ceiling. The government needs to boost the cap by Aug. 2 so it can keep paying its bills, according to the Treasury Department.

“The likelihood of a U.S. sovereign-rating downgrade is around 50 percent,” Andrew Garthwaite, the London-based head of global equity strategy at Credit Suisse Group AG, wrote in a report to clients today. “If there is no increase in the debt ceiling for a prolonged period -- say 3 months -- with no agreement in sight, we believe stock markets could easily fall 15 percent.” He predicted that an agreement will be made to raise the debt limit before next week’s deadline passes.

Profit has missed estimates by an average of 3 percent for companies in the Stoxx 600 that have reported results since July 11, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with an average 7.4 percent beat for S&P 500 members in the same period, the data show.

Clariant, Merck
Clariant plunged 13 percent to 13.39 Swiss francs. Second- quarter earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization declined to 241 million francs ($301 million) from 264 million francs, the Muttenz, Switzerland-based company said. JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts had predicted 293 million francs.

Merck unexpectedly reported a second-quarter loss and cut its forecast for full-year operating profit. The Darmstadt, Germany-based company had a loss of 84 million euros ($122 million) in the quarter, compared with net income of 187 million euros a year earlier, and said operating profit will be about 1 billion euros this year due to one-time adjustments. The stock sank 5.2 percent to 73.45 euros.

Peugeot lost 8.3 percent to 27.04 euros after Europe’s second-largest carmaker abandoned a goal of increasing second- half earnings at the automotive division.

Banks Drop
Bank stocks posted the largest decline among 19 industry groups on the Stoxx 600.

Santander retreated 2.9 percent to 7.36 euros as second- quarter profit dropped 38 percent after Spanish loan provisions surged and it set aside funds for customers mis-sold personal- loan insurance in the U.K.

UniCredit SpA (UCG), Italy’s largest bank, slid 4.2 percent to 1.23 euros. Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY) declined 3.8 percent to 43.45 pence.

Meda AB (MEDAA) rallied 7.2 percent to 76.15 kronor as two people with knowledge of the matter said Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. approached the Swedish company about a takeover. The approach was informal and may not lead to a deal, said one of the people, who declined to be identified because the situation is private.

Provident Financial Plc climbed 8.5 percent to 1,116 pence after the U.K.’s biggest publicly traded subprime lender posted first-half profit that beat analyst estimates as bad loans declined.

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Debt Ceiling Deadlock: Why the Markets Don’t Seem to Care

The U.S. is inching closer to default, and in Washington the two sides are digging trenches whose depths rival the Mariana Trench. And yet the markets don't seem to care.

Over the weekend, both President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner insisted a deal needed to be completed before the Asian markets opened on Sunday afternoon New York time. Of course, the Asian markets greeted the lack of resolution with a collective shrug, as did the U.S. markets. On Monday, things only got worse, with a day of backbiting culminating in dueling prime-time speeches. And yet on Tuesday morning in New York, stock futures were up (although the market open mixed, with the Dow dragging close to 50 points) and the 10-year bond was trading at 3.00. Does that look like an impending crisis to you?

Many of my colleagues in the financial-political press seem to think we are about to see a repeat of the fall of 2008. Back then, amid market turmoil, the first Congressional vote on the TARP failed. But the horrific market reaction forced Congress to swiftly reconsider. The conventional wisdom holds that market turmoil forced Congress and the White House to bite the bullet and pass necessary, unpopular legislation. The presumption today is that only such market forces —- carnage in the bond market, a crash in the stock market, the hammer of a a credit agency downgrade -- will make Democrats and Republicans come together and strike a deal.

Don't hold your breath.

We're not supposed to say that it is different this time, but it is different this time. The 'markets,' to the degree that they have a mind, seem not to be too troubled by the debt-ceiling brinksmanship. Back in the 1990s, the common notion in Washington, popularized by Clinton adviser Robert Rubin and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, was that the bond market is like a crowd at a Roman gladiator match, signaling approval or disapproval of fiscal policy on a daily basis. But it clearly no longer serves that function.

Despite the hand-wringing about American decline and the constant refrain that the U.S. is the next Greece, the bond markets remain remarkably permissive. The U.S. government is currently borrowing for 10 years at almost exactly 3 percent, an extraordinarily low rate that is within spitting distance of a historic low. Look at the chart from the past six months. The Federal Reserve has stopped buying bonds, the political stalemate has worsened, inflation hasn't disappeared. And yet interest rates are contained. Why? As John Tamny and I discuss in the accompanying video, nobody really believes the U.S. government is going to default, even if it pierces the debt ceiling next week.

Nobody believes that the 10-year and 30-year bonds are not money good — i.e. they won't be paid off on time. This is emphatically not like the Lehman Brothers situation, when the world woke up one Monday and realized that $650 billion in debt was likely to be settled for pennies on the dollar. The government has revenues, and it has plenty of other people to stiff before it stiffs bondholders. In a time of turmoil and crisis, even when the crisis is over whether the government will pay its debts, the U.S. Treasury market is a safe haven. So don't look for it to be the fiscal enforcer.

As for the credit ratings, again, don't hold your breath. It would be an exceedingly bold move for S&P and Moody's to downgrade the U.S. sovereign credit rating. And, generally, these firms only act on sovereign credits after the market has made them look like chumps by driving up interest rates. If there has been a time in history when S&P downgraded a sovereign credit that was borrowing for 10 years at 3 percent, I'm not aware of it. Despite their desire to get ahead of the curve, the ratings agencies won't act until well after the market does.

What about the stock markets? Here, too, people hoping that a swift downdraft will spur action are likely to be disappointed. It's an enduring truism that the Dow and S&P 500, and indeed the global markets, are some barometer of opinion about how the U.S. is doing. That made sense in the late 1990s, when the U.S. represented about one-third of the global economy and its stock markets represented about 50 percent of global stock market capitalization.

While the U.S. is still the world's largest economy, global markets don't care so much about what happens here as they used to. Assuming the debt brinksmanship leads to a slowdown in U.S. growth, it won't put much of a crimp in Asian stock markets. The U.S. today is about 25 or 26 percent of the global economy and, more important, accounts for only a small sliver of the world's growth. As the rest of the world trades more with each other and less with the U.S., America has less ability to impact the trajectory of global growth. And if you believe the markets are rational and constantly factor in known data, well, sluggish U.S. growth and political dysfunction aren't exactly news.

Perhaps it is more surprising that the U.S. stock market has held up well in the face of this brinksmanship. And indeed, it's more likely that effects of a stalemate would be felt in the stock market than the bond market. Why? Huge deficit cuts, and a suspension of delay in the payment of salaries, benefits and entitlements would contribute to a demand shock, slowing growth (good for bonds, bad for stocks.) It could be that stock investors aren't watching cable news 24/7. But here, again, there's a sense that Washington, and even the U.S. economy, matters less and less with each passing day. Consider this: The typical member of the S&P 500 already gets about half of its revenues (and probably most or all of its growth) from overseas. The bigger the company, the less tethered to the U.S. Consider Intel, McDonald's, Coca-Cola, Apple; their earnings reports show that they are being driven by growth overseas.

If Washington is going to act on the debt ceiling and the long-term deficit, it will have to do so out of its own volition and sense of responsibility —- and not because of the savage demands of the credit and stock markets. Get ready for a few more weeks of brinksmanship.

U.S. Stocks Decline on Debt Concerns, Disappointing Earnings

U.S. stocks fell for a second day amid wrangling between lawmakers over plans to raise the federal debt limit and outlooks from 3M Co. and United Parcel Service Inc. that disappointed investors.

3M lost 4.1 percent, the most in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, after projecting full-year earnings that trailed analysts’ estimates. UPS, the world’s largest package-delivery company, dropped 5.3 percent after saying the third quarter will be “fairly slow.” Industrial shares led losses among seven of the 10 main groups in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

The S&P 500 dropped 0.2 percent to 1,334.69 at 10:55 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 68.04 points, or 0.5 percent, to 12,524.76. The S&P 500 fell 0.6 percent yesterday as Republicans and Democrats failed to find common ground over an agreement to raise the federal debt limit.

“We have multiple sources of uncertainty, including what’s happening in Washington with the debt ceiling,” Mark Freeman, co-chief investment officer at Westwood Management Corp. in Dallas, said in a telephone interview. His firm oversees $14 billion. “The longer the uncertainty goes on, the greater the risk is that it will negatively affect businesses.”

Republicans and Democrats are sparring over separate plans to raise the federal debt limit and avoid a government default. President Barack Obama, in an address last night from the White House, said he remains confident that the stalemate over raising the debt ceiling can be resolved if both sides compromise.

Paying Bills
The U.S. Treasury Department may still have enough cash to pay the government’s bills for days or even weeks if Congress fails to increase the debt limit before the Aug. 2 deadline, say analysts at UBS AG and Barclays Plc. Both S&P and Moody’s Investors Service are weighing a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.

The S&P 500 rallied last week, erasing 81 percent of its loss since April 29 as Europe pledged support for Greece to end the region’s debt crisis and corporate profits topped analysts’ estimates. Since July 11, about 80 percent of S&P 500 companies that have released quarterly results beat projections, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Stocks maintained losses after a report showed sales of new U.S. homes unexpectedly declined for a second month in June, indicating housing is still languishing two years into the economic recovery. Purchases dropped 1 percent to a 312,000 annual pace, a three-month low, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists called for a 320,000 rate.

Consumer Confidence
A separate report today from S&P/Case-Shiller showed home prices in 20 metropolitan areas declined 4.5 percent in May from the same month last year. The year-over-year decrease was the biggest since November 2009. Other data showed confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly rose in July from an eight-month low, led by a rebound in the outlook for jobs over the next six months. The Conference Board’s index climbed to 59.5 from a revised 57.6 reading in June.

3M lost 4.1 percent to $91.13 after the maker of Post-It Notes projected 2011 earnings that fell short of analysts estimates after lower demand for LCD televisions curbed sales in its display and graphics business, the company’s third-biggest unit.

UPS, a bellwether of the economy that handles goods ranging from financial documents to pharmaceuticals and industrial parts, tumbled 5.3 percent to $70.12 after saying in a conference call that the third quarter will be “fairly slow” before demand picks up in the last three months of 2011.

Netflix, Ford
Netflix Inc. tumbled 10 percent to $253.51 after its third- quarter sales and profit forecast missed estimates and the company said a price increase was crimping new-user signups.

Supervalu Inc. gained 9.6 percent to $9.34 as the supermarket chain reported first-quarter earnings of 35 cents a share, beating the average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 33 cents.

RadioShack Corp. surged 20 percent to $15.75 as the consumer-electronics retailer said it will provide Verizon Wireless products in its stores starting Sept. 15 and it was “comfortable with the range of analysts’ earnings estimates for the remainder of 2011.”

Baidu Inc., the owner of China’s most popular Internet search engine, climbed 4.9 percent to $164.28. The company said third-quarter sales will be at least $611.1 million, compared with the average analyst forecast for $568.4 million, Bloomberg data show.

Broadcom Corp., the supplier of communications chips for Apple Inc.’s mobile devices, rallied 10 percent to $38.39 after forecasting third-quarter sales that topped analysts’ predictions on booming demand for iPhones and iPads.

European Stocks Drop for Second Day; BP, UBS Drop After Earnings Reports

European stocks retreated for a second day as companies from BP Plc to UBS AG reported earnings that missed analysts’ estimates and concern grew that U.S. lawmakers may fail to increase the nation’s debt limit.

BP, Europe’s second-biggest oil company, and UBS, Switzerland’s largest bank, slid more than 2 percent. STMicroelectronics NV, Europe’s biggest semiconductor maker, sank the most in almost 10 years after saying there will be a “correction” in sales.

The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 0.8 percent to 269.19 at 3:20 p.m. in London. The gauge has retreated 7.5 percent from this year’s high in February amid concern that Europe’s fiscal crisis will derail the economic recovery and speculation that U.S. lawmakers will fail to agree on increasing the nation’s debt ceiling by an Aug. 2 deadline.

“It will be a very mixed earnings season and the second half of the year is a bit more cloudy than some people expected,” said Heinz-Gerd Sonnenschein, an equity strategist at Deutsche Postbank AG in Bonn. “It’s a difficult situation for European banks at the moment because of the risk aversion of market participants.”

European stocks extended losses as Spanish and Italian notes slumped after demand fell at the nations’ first auctions of government debt after last week’s European Union agreement on further financial aid for Greece.

Obama Warning
President Barack Obama warned yesterday of a “deep economic crisis” without a compromise to avert a U.S. default as he dueled Republican House Speaker John Boehner in back-to back speeches on increasing the debt limit.

National benchmark indexes dropped in 11 of all of the 18 western European markets. France’s CAC 40 declined 1.1 percent and Germany’s DAX Index lost 0.5 percent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.4 percent as a report showed the country’s economy grew 0.2 percent in the second quarter, matching the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

BP slid 2.4 percent to 464 pence after the company reported profit adjusted for one-time items and changes in inventory that missed analyst estimates.

UBS lost 3.4 percent to 13.43 Swiss francs after saying second-quarter net income fell to 1.02 billion francs ($1.27 billion) from 2.01 billion francs in the year-earlier period. That missed the 1.29 billion-franc mean estimate of 14 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

STMicro Slides
STMicroelectronics plunged 11 percent to 5.70 euros in Milan, the biggest drop since 2001, as Chief Executive Officer Carlo Bozotti said there will be a “correction” in sales and gross margin in the third quarter because of difficulties at customer Nokia Oyj.

The stock was downgraded to “reduce” from “hold” by Francesco Previtera, an equity analyst at Banca Akros.

Qiagen NV plummeted 4.8 percent to 11.82 euros, the lowest price in more than two years, after the Dutch company whose tools are used to predict disease and isolate DNA said “challenging market conditions” will affect results in the second half.

Kesko Oyj, Finland’s biggest retailer, fell 7.8 percent to 28.18 euros, its lowest price in a year, after reporting second- quarter net income of 54 million euros, missing analysts’ estimates of 59 million euros.

Groupe SEB SA sank 7.3 percent to 67.45 euros, the biggest decline in more than a year. The world’s largest maker of countertop kitchen appliances said first-half profit was 93 million euros compared with 89 million euros a year earlier.

Below Expectations
The results were “well below expectations,” Denis Moreau and Julie de Vigneral, analysts at UBS AG, wrote in a report. “SEB is exposed to raw materials prices volatility that may affect profitability.”

Norsk Hydro ASA, Europe’s third-largest aluminum producer, climbed 2.1 percent to 39.74 kroner as the company reported second-quarter net income of 1.41 billion kroner ($263 million), beating the 1.07 billion-krone average of 11 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

BG Group Plc rallied 3.8 percent to 1,479.5 pence, the largest increase this month. The U.K.’s third-biggest oil company said second-quarter profit doubled to $1.24 billion as prices for oil and gas and production rose.

Societe Television Francaise 1 surged 10 percent to 14 euros, the largest increase in 14 months, after the owner of France’s most-watched TV channel said first-half net income rose 60 percent to 118.6 million euros ($172 million).

KPN Climbs
Royal KPN NV advanced 3.2 percent to 10.15 euros as the biggest Dutch phone company reiterated its forecast that earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization will be more than 5.3 billion euros in 2011.

Metro AG rose for a fourth day, adding 1.7 percent to 39.27 euros. Germany’ biggest retailer confirmed its earnings projections for 2011 even as its Media-Saturn unit posted a second-quarter operating loss of 44 million euros.

Sky Deutschland AG soared 5.6 percent to 3.55 euros, its biggest advance in more than five weeks, after UniCredit SpA initiated coverage of Germany’s biggest pay-TV company with a “buy” recommendation and a price estimate of 5 euros.

Stocks to watch 20110726: Prestariang, Axiata, Uzma, Alam

Written by Joseph Chin of
Tuesday, 26 July 2011 20:12

KUALA LUMPUR: Stocks which could see trading interest on Wednesday, July 27 include ICT service provider Prestariang Bhd which will make its debut on the Main Market.

Other stocks to watch include Axiata Group Bhd, UZMA BHD [], ALAM MARITIM RESOURCES BHD [] and Berjaya Food Bhd.

On the eve of its listing, Prestariang announced it had secured an RM80 million contract with the Ministry of Higher Education for an industry based certification scheme.

The programme would be undertaken by its unit Prestariang Systems Sdn Bhd under a contract over four years at RM20 million a year.

The offer price of the shares is 90 sen. Hwang DBS Vickers Research has a fair value of RM1.09 based on sum-of-parts.

According to the research house, Prestariang intends to gradually reduce its dependency on government contracts going forward.

The company plans to expand its product offerings to include more in-house certification programmes, set up sales offices and training centres in three new locations within Malaysia in 2H11, widen clientele base from the Middle East region via partnership arrangements, and develop its own proprietary test and assessment centres with in-house proprietary procedures and systems in 2012.

Meanwhile, Axiata should see trading interest as share overhang has been finally cleared.

TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD []’s unit has placed out 92.36 million Axiata Group Bhd at RM5.07 a share. The exercise raised gross proceeds of RM468.3 million for TM.

Uzma Bhd has secured a RM170 million contract from Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd to provide integrated equipment and services for idle well reactivation project.

its subsidiary Uzma Engineering Sdn Bhd (UESB) had received the three year contact which would be effective from July 25, 2011 to July 24, 2014.

On project delays, Uzma said the execution of the contract was depending on work orders to be issued by Petronas from time to time.

Alam Maritim’s unit has received a letter of award from Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd to provide one anchor handling tug supply vessel for RM10.6 million.

The contract started on July 13 and the duration is for a primary period of 150 days with two extension options of 45 days each.

Berjaya Food Bhd is expanding its Kenny Rogers Roasters (KRR) brand into Indonesia after it inked a joint venture (JV) agreement with three Indonesian companies to develop and operate the franchise.

It had entered into a conditional JV agreement with PT Mitra Samaya (MS), PT Harapan Swasti Sentosa (HSS) and PT Boga Lestari Sentosa (PT Boga) to operate the franchise in Java island and Bali, Indonesia under PT Boga.

Stocks to watch 20110725: KNM, Zecon, Ivory, Peterlabs

Written by Joseph Chin of
Monday, 25 July 2011 20:00

KUALA LUMPUR: KNM GROUP BHD [] and ZECON BHD [] are expected to generate trading interest are announcing plans for a massive RM17 billion development at Teluk Ramunia, Johor.

Other stocks which could see trading interest on Tuesday, July 26 include Ivory PROPERTIES [] Bhd, Peterlabs Holdings Bhd and PUBLIC BANK BHD [].

KNM and Zecon had on Monday inked heads of agreements with Gulf Asian Petroleum Sdn Bhd to undertake the projects worth RM17 billion at Teluk Ramunia.

The agreements were to build a 150,000/200,000 bpd petroleum refinery and 400,000/525,000 mtpa polypropylene unit for GAP with a total project value of US$5 billion (RM15 billion).

The other project is to construct a petroleum product storage terminal facility comprising four terminals with a total storage capacity of 2.328 million cubic metres, with supporting infrastructure and auxiliaries worth RM2 billion.

For the refinery project, KNM said it would together with Zecon and/or a Korea or Chinese contractor set up a consortium to undertake the refinery project.

Another stock to watch is Ivory Properties after it got the approval to undertake a mixed development over 102.56 acres on Penang island. The Penang Development Corporation (PDC) had approved the purchase and development of the land in Bayan Mutiara, near the Penang Bridge.

Of the 102.56 acres, it said 67.56 acres are existing land and 35 acres are to be reclaimed for a proposed mixed development.

Peterlabs Holdings Bhd will make its trading debut on Tuesday. The company manufactures and sells animal health and nutrition products in the domestic market. Its offer price is 30 sen while RHB Research has a fair value of 41 sen.

Public Bank Bhd’s earnings rose 19.9% to RM880.35 million in the second quarter ended June 30, 2011 from RM734.08 million a year ago. Revenue increased by 18.3% to RM3.17 billion from RM2.68 billion. Earnings per share were 25.14 sen compared with 20.96 sen.

It declared a first interim dividend of 20% or 20 sen a share which would result in a total dividend payout of RM700 million.

U.S. Stocks Extend Declines as Lawmakers Wrangle Over Federal Debt Plans

U.S. stocks retreated, pulling the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down from a two-week high, as Republicans and Democrats wrangled over separate plans to raise the federal debt limit and avoid a government default.

Phone companies led losses among 10 groups in the S&P 500, losing 1.4 percent. Kimberly-Clark Corp. slipped 2.1 percent after reporting a decline in second-quarter profit, hurt by higher commodity prices. E*Trade Financial Corp. jumped 5.6 percent after agreeing to hire Morgan Stanley to explore a sale.

The S&P 500 fell 0.6 percent to 1,337.43 at 4 p.m. in New York after slumping as much as 1 percent. The index rallied to within 1.4 percent of a three-year high last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 88.36 points, or 0.7 percent, to 12,592.80 today.

“The market is trying to balance the macro risks of the debt ceiling negotiations and European contagion with good company earnings,” Rafi Zaman, managing director of global equities at DuPont Capital Management in Wilmington, Delaware, said in a telephone interview. His firm oversees about $26 billion. “The market is so volatile and moving depending on what’s in the forefront.”

Negotiations over the nation’s debt limit have whipsawed stocks. The S&P 500 jumped 1.6 percent on July 19, the biggest gain since March, amid optimism President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans would agree to raise the ceiling before the Aug. 2 deadline. Stocks fell the next day on concern a Senate plan to help the nation avoid default faced resistance from House Republicans.

Support for Greece
U.S. equities rallied last week as Europe pledged support for Greece to end the region’s debt crisis and companies from Apple Inc. to Morgan Stanley and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. beat earnings projections. The S&P 500 closed at 1,345.02 on July 22. When the measure climbed to 1,363.61 on April 29, it was the highest level since June 2008.

The S&P 500 Index pared its decline to less than 0.1 percent from as much as 1 percent earlier today. Stocks resumed declines as Senator Charles Schumer criticized House Speaker John Boehner’s two-step plan to cut the federal deficit, fueling concern lawmakers were no closer to a compromise. The Republican plan would allow a debt-limit increase of $1 trillion, to be followed later by about $1.6 trillion, while larger spending cuts would be required.

‘Far From Perfect’
“This plan is far from perfect, but it adheres to our principles of ensuring that spending cuts are greater than any debt hike and it includes no tax increases,” Boehner, an Ohio Republican, said in a statement.

Top Senate Democrat Harry Reid readied a separate plan which would hand Obama the full $2.4 trillion in additional borrowing authority he has requested tied to $2.7 trillion in spending cuts that would leave Medicare and Medicaid untouched.

Both S&P and Moody’s are weighing a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. Even if the country defaults on some obligations after Aug. 2 and pays bondholders, S&P said short- and long-term interest rates would rise by 0.50 percentage point and 1 point, respectively.

“Missing the Aug. 2 deadline would be a serious issue and could result in a ratings downgrade,” Larry Peruzzi, senior equity trader at Cabrera Capital Markets Inc. in Boston, wrote in an e-mail. “Though some politicians’ comments this morning are giving markets a sliver of hope that they actually get it done.”

Senate Bob Corker, a Tennessee Republican, said investors should “chill out” and not worry that Congress will allow a default to occur.

“I would sort of chill out and not worry so much anymore about the debt-ceiling issue,” Corker said on CNBC. “We have a lot of things that we know will keep us from ever defaulting on our debt.”

Earnings Support
The S&P 500 erased 81 percent of its loss since April 29 through last week as corporate profits topped analyst estimates. Since July 11, 83 percent of S&P 500 companies that released quarterly results beat the average analyst earnings estimate, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Between July 20 and July 22, analysts boosted estimates for S&P 500 income during the final three months of 2011 by 2.3 percent. That’s the biggest two-day increase for the quarter after the current one in data going back to 2006.

‘Cloud of Uncertainty’
“There are great companies that are making a ton of money underneath this cloud of uncertainty from the debt ceiling debate,” Frank Ingarra, who helps manage the CAN SLIM Select Growth Fund at Greenwich, Connecticut-based NorthCoast Asset Management LLC, said in a telephone interview. His firm oversees $1.5 billion. “Everyone’s conflicted over this politicking and that’s why we’re oscillating.” The S&P 500 Telecommunication Services Index sank 1.4 percent, the most among 10 industries within the S&P 500. Research In Motion Ltd. dropped 4.4 percent to $26.67. The maker of the BlackBerry smartphone said it’s cutting 2,000 positions and Chief Operating Officer Don Morrison, currently on temporary medical leave, is planning to retire after 10 years with the company.

A gauge of consumer staples companies retreated 1 percent. Kimberly-Clark fell 2.1 percent to $66.48. The maker of Scott toilet paper and Huggies diapers said net income fell 18 percent. Chief Executive Officer Tom Falk is raising prices on most items the company sells in North America to make up for rising costs for pulp, oil and other raw materials. In April, it more than doubled its estimate for raw materials expense inflation for this year.

Lorillard, Kroger
Lorillard Inc. fell 4.5 percent to $107.29. The cigarette maker reported second-quarter sales of $1.16 billion, missing the average analyst estimate of $1.17 billion in a Bloomberg survey.

Kroger Co. declined 1.9 percent to $24.82, while Safeway Inc. slipped 2.1 percent to $20.50. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its recommendation on the grocers to “sell” from “neutral,” citing the possibility of accelerating inflation.

Financial stocks lost 0.8 percent as a group. Bank of America dropped 1.2 percent to $10.01, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. slumped 1.2 percent to $41.69.

Utility companies rose 0.3 percent for the biggest gain among 10 groups in the S&P 500. NRG Energy Inc. climbed 2.7 percent to $25.41 after being upgraded to “buy” from “neutral” at Bank of America Corp.

E*Trade rallied 5.6 percent to $16.52. The online brokerage plans to hire Morgan Stanley to explore a sale after its largest shareholder, Citadel LLC, said the company needed to take action to reverse “catastrophic losses” for investors.

The board of TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. plans to discuss a possible bid for E*Trade, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Kim Hillyer, a spokeswoman for TD Ameritrade, said it was the company’s practice not to comment on rumors or speculation. Ameritrade added 1.8 percent to $19.96.
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